The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Thursday uncertain.
- ES pivot 2034.00. Holding below is bearish.
- Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias lower.
- Single stock trader: VZ topping.
Recap
The roller coaster ride continued Wednesday as we were up 100 and then down 60 and in the end the Dow finished all of 7 points higher. Crazy stuff. So let's see how this changes the charts as we look forward to today, Thursday.
The Technicals:
The Dow: After all the sturm und drang was over, the Dow ended just about where it started on Wednesday, forming a perfect doji and last night a star position. With indicators now approaching overbought this is a reversal warning worth heeding.
The VIX: Ya, the VIX got me Wednesday. Instead of continuing lower, it gained 5.77% on a green hammer. But the indicators are wandering. RSI and momentum were higher but the stochastics continued lower. This one was too tough to call last tonight.
Market index futures: Last night, all three futures were lower at 12:17 AM EST with ES down 0.15%. ES gave up ground on Wednesday with a fat red spinning top on a vaguely dark cloud cover candle. But the indicators remain confused with momentum and OBV moving lower but RSI and money flow moving higher and none of them at either extreme. That all leaves this chart a conundrum.
ES daily pivot: Last night the ES daily pivot rose from 2031.00 to 2034.00. But now we're below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.
Dollar: Tuesday night's bearish stochastic crossover came to an end as on Wednesday the dollar ended gaining 0.47% on a bullish harami making me wonder if that's all there was to this recent pullback. And all the indicators have started rising off oversold. So the next logical move is higher.
Euro: And the euro put in a hanging man on Wednesday giving up a quarter of Tuesday's gains, and forming a bearish stochastic crossover. That all looks bad and indeed last night it was already gapping down 0.57% making a lower close look likely on Thursday.
Transportation: Like the Dow, the trans put in their own star Wednesday implying a possible reversal here too.
The charts are being particularly opaque tonight. We have some topping warnings but they all require confirmation. So while my personal bias is negative at this point I'm going to have to officially call Thursday uncertain. Let's just say I'm not going long from right here.
Single Stock Trader
VZ also put in a topping star yesterday, making me think I was right to exit on Tuesday. I left a bit of money on the table but the alternative would be to sit in front of my computer all day waiting for the top and I just have too much other stuff to do for that. That becomes day trading, not swing trading. Anyway, I'm expecting a move lower from here.