Talking Points
Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD touched its lowest level since early April on Tuesday before finding support near the 3x1 Gann angle line of the 2013 low in the 1.3700 area
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Euro while below 1.3875
- Last month’s low near 1.3670 remains a key downside pivot with a daily close below needed to confirm a broader topping pattern
- A very minor cycle turn window is seen today
- Only strength back through the 1st square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3875 would shift the near-term trend bias positive
EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.3875. May look to add on strength over the next couple of days.
|
Instrument |
Support 2 |
Support 1 |
Spot |
Resistance 1 |
Resistance 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
*1.3670 |
1.3695 |
1.3710 |
1.3755 |
1.3825 |
Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- GBP/USD touched its highest level since the 3rd quarter of 2009 last week before reversing near the 18th square root relationship of the 2013 low in the 1.6965 area
- Our near-term trend bias remains higher, however, while above the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.6695
- A move through 1.6920 is needed to re-instill upside momentum in Cable
- A minor cycle turn window is seen late this week/early next week
- A move under 1.6695 will confirm a more important top in the Pound.
GBP/USD Strategy: Like being square for the time being.
|
Instrument |
Support 2 |
Support 1 |
Spot |
Resistance 1 |
Resistance 2 |
|
GBP/USD |
*1.6695 |
1.6745 |
1.6770 |
1.6820 |
*1.6920 |
Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY
The range in USD/JPY is making the exchange rate much more difficult to analyze from a short-term cyclical perspective. Despite this lack of short-term clarity, the longer-term cyclical picture still suggests the real risk in the exchange rate is to the downside from this multi-month consolidation. The 4th square root relationship of the year’s high at 101.35 remains a critical near-term pivot with weakness below this level needed to signal the start of a new impulsive leg lower. Only a move back through 103.10 would cast doubt on our broader negative cyclical view.
--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com