Please try another search
In market terms, what threatening factors have come out of hiding?
A term I have not heard used commonly for 40 years is money supply.
In fact, I have not even thought about M1 and M2 since the days of trading commodities on the NY Exchanges.
Back in the day, traders waited patiently for money supply numbers to come out.
The definition of money supply is the total value of money available in an economy at a point in time. M1 includes money in circulation plus checkable deposits in banks. M2 includes M1 plus savings deposits (less than $100,000) and money market mutual funds.
From 1979-1982, Paul Volcker changed monetary policy to control inflation. Hence, we in the pits, checked M1 and M2 to see if Volcker added to or subtracted from the money supply. That, in turn, would impact the price of gold and silver.
Fast forward to the present:
Over the last three weeks, the M2 money supply has exploded by a whopping $532 billion. The money supply is expanding at 26x the rate of QE1 during the 2008 financial crisis.
Many wonder, including myself, what happens to all these trillions of dollars in new money, once the economy comes back?
With $300 billion of the recent stimulus heading to consumers, the price of basic commodities has to rise.
The longer the economy is shut down and with the immediate risk of deflation, the more likely it is that the FED will print even more money.
With the economy essentially closed, the demand for goods will rise, while the supply diminishes.
This will cause inflation to rise in the intermediate-term.
Not only will food and metal commodities rise, but the Fed may have to ultimately use the bond market to hedge against a potentially out of control inflation.
And if they raise rates, well, that is not good for the economy or the market.
On Friday, the FED cut its pace of Treasury buying from $75 to $60 to $50 billion a day. For now, that means the FED sees a lesser need to counter the excessive selling pressure.
Continue to watch the credit market, treasury bonds, gold, food commodities and how the inside weeks that were left in many instruments reconcile.
S&P 500 (SPY) 3 days of relatively tight ranges. I say down, under 244, up over 258
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside week. 101.60 support and 112.56 resistance
Dow (DIA) Inside week. Support 190 resistance 216.35 then 225.87
Nasdaq (QQQ) 3 days of relatively tight ranges. I say down, under 181, up over 190
KRE (Regional Banks) Inside week. 27.26-34.73 range to watch
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside week. 122-99.22 range
IYT (Transportation) Inside week 145.52-117.18 range to watch
IBB (Biotechnology) 105.25 pivotal 110.25 resistance
XRT (Retail) Inside week 31.63-26.29 range to watch
Volatility Index (VXX) Inside week-59.01-39.00 range to watch
Junk Bonds (JNK) Inside week. 95.98 resistance 83.18 support
LQD (iShs iBoxx High yield Bonds) 120 pivotal support
The ETF landscape in the U.S. is vast and varied, with the ETF Central screener showing some 3,479 U.S.-listed ETFs as of April 4th.This number is particularly dynamic, as numerous...
As for the economy, the federal government (the Bureau of Economic Analysis) released its third estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth recently at 3.4% (annual rate)...
by Jack FischerDuring LSEG Lipper’s fund-flows week that ended March 27, 2024, investors were overall net redeemers of fund assets (including both conventional funds and...
Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?
By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.
%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List
Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.
I feel that this comment is:
Thank You!
Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Add a Comment
We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:
Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.
Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.
Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.