The Wheels Are Turning — It's US NFP Time

I'm not a fan of putting on new trades on the morning of the US Employment Report, as it can be something of a lottery, and can leave egg on the face of anyone who plies their trade talking/trading technicals.

What I do try to do for our clients is offer some wisdom on the key levels that might come into play if the number produces a significant move. This one seems particlarly highly anticipated, so the scope for a move is high.

So all you're going to get from me today is a run through of a few of the major pairs and markets with my brief thoughts on each.

EURUSD is travelling higher in a channel and we hit the top line of this yesterday. This top line is at 1.3688 today. The bottom line is right down at 1.3513 which looks like a strong area of support anway.

I want to be long GBPUSD and think 1.6300 is going to hold, but my long trade from earlier in the week was stopped out and basically it's gone nowhere all week.

USDJPY looks to have held support around 101.54-72 and I'm with my good friend Ian Coleman in that the last few days looks like a Wedge and this morning we've broken the top of this.

The AUDUSD looks like the best bet for a payrolls punt. This is still a bearish looking chart and there are a number of reasons to expect resistance to be seen around 0.9075-90, so you could structure a trade around this idea with a target at 0.8892 if you're still in after the numbers.


Gold needs to get back above 1,250 USD/oz and 1,258 USD/oz to turn me away from a bear tack. It's been a choppy week for this one but the bears still seem to be on top. Similarly Silver is struggling below 20.00 USD/oz still and the YTD low at 18.17 must still be in the bears' sights.

In equities, the S&P has a massive level at 1,774.50 and it doesn't look to be in too much danger while this holds.

The Dow chart is a bit messier so we are awaiting clarity there. The NASDAQ is seemingly ignoring all thoughts of retracement.

The DAX is very interesting for Fibonacci watchers like me as we seem to have found support bang on a key Fibonacci level at 9,069. This is the 38.2 percent retracement of the rally seen since October 9. If this breaks, look for a move to 8,847, the 61.8 percent retracement of the same move. The DAX historically "likes" 61.8 percent retracement level in my experience.

I am now off to watch my youngest Son's Christmas concert so apologies if you don't get an answer to any queries or questions for a few hours.

As one poster put on Trading Floor this morning. Remember it's Payrolls. STAY SAFE!