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The Market May Be Setting Up to Break Sharply Lower

Published 11/09/2022, 03:30 AM
Updated 09/20/2023, 06:34 AM

Stocks finished yesterday higher by around 56 bps to close at 3828. The S&P 500 had been up sharply, more than 1%, but managed to give it all back intraday, even turning negative at one point. It appears that the futures have formed a diamond reversal pattern. These aren’t the most straightforward patterns to find, but this one is very close to breaking, so we should find out if it is correct relatively soon. If this does work out, I think we see 3,640, followed by new lows.

S&P 500 Futures Chart

Volatility

The VVIX, which measures the volatility of the VIX, appears it may have bottomed, and yesterday it started to push higher. We will want to see if this continues, as it can be a good leading indicator for the direction of the VIX and the overall S&P 500. If the VVIX starts to rise, the VIX is likely not far behind.

VIX Daily Chart

Disney

Disney's (NYSE:DIS) shares dropped after posting disappointing quarterly results. You are talking about a stock that is probably heading back to the low to mid-80s. At the of end the day, this stock has gone nowhere since late 2014.

Walt Disney Daily Chart

Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) continues lower, dropping further yesterday. It is in between support at $180 and resistance at $209. The $180 area does become important because after that there is a long way down with a gap to fill to around $136. Not only that, but $180 could serve as the neckline of a Head And Shoulders pattern, and breaking that neckline would open the door to a new set of problems.

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Tesla Daily Chart

Original Post

Latest comments

Perfect counter intuitive timing!  One data point they were waiting for to cheer the big bad Inflation is dead. CPI.  heck they were desperate for anything. this one dat point is so convincing the dollar and 10 year yield also PLUNGED!   I would call that either great detective work or more than armature, desperate. I sure hope the PPI, the real leading inflation indicator, also falls under expectation.  If not, WATCH OUT BELOW!  yet again if it also falls the market will have a huge rally till Year End.
Or they may be setting up to go sharply higher. You don't actually have a clue, and all the charts and graphs in the world won't give you the answer because emotion can't be measured and this market right now is an emotional market. Someday fundamentals will be back and emotional investing can finally take a hike.
Kramer is right yet again, the permabulls get slaughtered. Learn to trade both sides or be a long term investor, but this stonks only go up garbage is laughable.
Yeah in Jan/Feb,/March may go lower. Seasonality doesn't support anymore downside.  Also,  crypto implosion money would gho into stocks as stocks are pretty cheap now compared to past 22 yrs!
Good time to buy now
Good stuff.  your prior precition was SP500 down but perhaps pre-mature as it rallied far above 3750.  Post election perhaps traders are not wanting the market to go up.
His prediction is always market heading lower.
I think you made that diamond pattern up but I agree...
Spot on
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