The Grind Continues

So it does. The BTFD crowd are unable to push it convincingly to the orbit beyond the gravity and the sellers have gone on strike. Possibly everyone is on vacation and the juniors do not want to rock the boat too much. In many ways this current rally does seem like the one of March when it just kept grinding higher. But that was then. Conditions are different.

Then it was an LTRO driven rally. Now it is hope driven. That things are so bad, some one or other, either in China or in Europe, will intervene with money. If none else, then the dragon slayer Ben! Jackson Hole is round the corner and who can forget the QE2, which came out of JH.

It does not matter that things are about to go kaput. O&B team will provide free money to every one in America. O to the voters and B to the Banksters. Then everyone is happy.

We just can't stop salivating.

But we will leave the Economorons with the task of lifting the heavy duty discussion about economics. And just keep the common sense functioning in this mine field. We all have some quantifiable edge in dealing with stock market. Some use TA, some use Elliott Wave, I depend mainly on cycle analysis and understanding of the criminal psychology of the TBTF bankers and Oligarchy.

In fact if you read history, you will find that the criminal behaviour pattern of this group has not really changed over centuries. Thus a study of the financiers of middle age Venice will give you some behavioural clue of the financiers of modern age. They are more dangerous than a Mexican gang.

Coming back to market, my cycle top was around August 13 -14. So we will see what tomorrow brings. If SPX closes below 1385, I will add to my short positions. The existing short positions are in red but not by much. It was like buying a lottery ticket with higher odds, not an investment decision. I still recommend everyone not to front run and manage the risks.

The market is not going to move aimlessly like this and a definite trend will soon develop. So let's wait patiently for the definite trend. The movement of AUD is hinting that the storm is brewing and we just have wait a bot longer. My COT indicators are definitely bearish.