Greece, rather suddenly, finds itself holding all the cards. The Trioka, combination of the EU, ECB, and IMF leadership, will attempt to quietly 'bribe' Greece to stay with the Euro. While Trioka's official stance will be the Euro does not need Greece, it privately knows it does. If Greece leaves, relieving itself from the constraints of austerity, similar to Roosevelt's reversal (1,2) of the balanced budget policies of the Hoover Administration during the Great Depression, its struggling economy will begin to recovery (see summary). This recovery will be anticipated by Greek stock market (chart). Greece's unexpected recovery would attract attention of citizen's within larger, higher-profile EU economies also struggling with austerity.
Once Greece leaves the Europe, the wolfpack, the leading edge of the invisible hand, will begin the process of discounting the exit of others. No policies will stop that. The Trioka, if it doesn't know that already, will be educated real-time.
Summary of Greek Economy
- Average wage is €600 a month
- Unemployment is at 25%, with youth unemployment almost 50%
- Economy has shrunk by 25% since the start of the eurozone crisis
- Country's debt is 175% of GDP
- Borrowed €240bn from the EU, the ECB and the IMF
