The crypto market has shown impressive dynamics since the beginning of the year. Bitcoin has added almost 5% in the last 24 hours and traded above $8,500. Bitcoin’s jump has so far faced an critical obstacle in the form of a 200-day simple moving average. This curve is closely monitored by classical market professionals and its influence on the crypto market increases as trading becomes more and more algorithmic. Overcoming the $8,500 obstacle in the form of a 200-day average will be able to launch a broader rally, as was the case last April. However, without the breakout confirmation, Bitcoin formally remains under the influence of the downtrend.
According to Arcane Research, from the year start, Bitcoin trading volumes have increased by 126%, indicating a recovery in investor interest. Trading volumes in the network are created by institutional, which in early January were still on vacation, and now wholly entered the market. Also, on January 13 CME launched trading of bitcoin options after the same Bakkt move earlier in December. Market observers conclude that now it is professionals who will manage the future price dynamics, and judging by the growth of infrastructure around the bitcoin, now we see the prerequisites for a new rebound.
Recently, waves of optimism have been mostly related to Bitcoin and selectively some altcoins. The most significant increase is demonstrated by the most famous bitcoin forks and anonymous coins. Bitcoin SV (BSV) jumped 100%, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) added almost 26%, Bitcoin Gold (BTG) jumped 24%, anonymous coin DASH increased by 29%.
In addition to the overall recovery and enthusiasm, it is worth paying attention to other events. Thus, the greed and fear index is already in the “Greed” mode. The RSI relative strength index also indicates that the asset is approaching overbought levels. On Cryptotwitter, attempts to call what is happening now “Altcoin Season” are attracting fierce criticism, as market participants generally believe that the current trend is a short-term bounce, and soon the market will face the ceiling, followed by a sale.
Over the next few days, the crypto community will find the triggers of the current dynamics. It will take some time to test the stability of the rally. At this point, the scale can easily lean in either direction. While there is visible growth of infrastructure around the bitcoin and keen interest of professionals, altcoins are considered a kind of “wasted” asset that has lost its reasons for further existence.
The FxPro Analyst Team