Technical Analysis: Russia RTSI, South Africa TOP 40, And Turkey ISE

TOP40 has failed miserably to break the 29492/591 resistance area and really now the bulls have to think about throwing in the towel with bears starting to gain the upper hand.

As stated last week, support seen at 29373/236 and this held the downside very nicely on Friday. Today we look for a break lower towards 29088/00. Cover all shorts and attempt longs here but a break would indicate further weakness with 28764/40 the next main target as this includes the 9 week moving  average. Good support here should see short covering with buyers dipping their toes. Attempt longs with them with stops below 28690. Go with a break lower again looking for 28513/09. If this fails we can test the 200 day MA at 28180 and then the 55
week MA at 28105 . This band of support should be worth attempting longs once again.

Only a break through 29677 negates the bearish picture now and should then lead to a retest of 2011 highs at 30195. Attempt shorts as we approach this area.

Turkey ISE:

ISE 30 made it to the next target of 63449 and topped out just above. It looks like that is the end of the short term recovery in the long term bear market.

We are back below 62114/61 today and more than likely heading for a test of 61000 to 60800. Below here we see 60325 support as the next target and then a gap to fill down to 59982. If we cannot bounce from here we should go for a retest of Jan lows so far at 59219. Of course if we fail here on a test of this support we look likely to test 2011 lows again soon at 58663/487. As stated a few times least week, sooner or later this level looks likely to give way which will open the door to further very significant losses, possibly as far as 51303.

Above 62161 we run in to resistance at last week’s highs of 63449/577 of course. If this level is broken today we could stretch as far as 63904 to 64324. This band should offer an excellent selling opportunity at this stage with the market likely to look oversold in the short term. Above here we have a short term trend line at 64780/90. Only if we can sustain a break above here can we start to get a bit bullish in the medium term and look for 66000.

Russia RTSI:

RTS was unable to test 1477 last week and with the market stuck in a long term down trend it does look like the short term recovery has now run its course.

We are back below 1445 now and looking for a test of 1435/32 today. This may not support the market for too long and below here we should probably see a test of much better support at 1423. It may hold a slide so cover shorts and even attempt longs for a small bounce back to 1435 (perhaps even 1445 to re-instate shorts) but if we continue lower look for last Monday’s low at 1411 and then 1406.

1472/74 and then 1477/78 should remain hard to beat but if we manage a break higher we can target 1491 and then 1500/01. It is possible we even head as high as 1512 before longer term sellers see the opportunity to establish shorts once again to take advantage of the longer term down trend.