Economic Data
(CN) CHINA OCT NEW YUAN LOANS (CNY): 505.2B V 590.0BE (13-month low)
(CN) CHINA OCT TRADE BALANCE: $32.0B V $27.7B PRIOR (highest since Jan 2009); EXPORTS Y/Y: 11.6% V 9.9% PRIOR; IMPORTS Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.4% PRIOR
(JP) JAPAN Q3 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -0.9% V -0.9%E (first contraction in 5 quarters); ANNUALIZED: -3.5% V -3.4%E; NOMINAL GDP Q/Q: -0.9% V -0.9%E
(JP) JAPAN SEPT TERTIARY INDUSTRY INDEX M/M: +0.3% V -0.1%E
(JP) JAPAN SEPT LOANS & DISCOUNTS CORP M/M: 0.2% V 0.2% PRIOR
(JP) JAPAN OCT DOMESTIC CGPI M/M: -0.3% V -0.2%E; Y/Y: -1.0% V -0.8%E
(AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT HOME LOANS M/M: 0.9% V 1.0%E; OWNER-OCCUPIED HOME LOAN VALUE: 1.5% V 1.5% PRIOR; INVESTMENT LENDING: +8.6% V -0.4% PRIOR
(AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT RBA CREDIT CARD BALANCES: A$49.1B V A$49.2B PRIOR; RBA CREDIT CARD PURCHASES: A$19.5B V A$21.7B PRIOR
Markets Snapshot (as of 05:00GMT)
Nikkei225 -0.6%
S&P/ASX -0.2%
Kospi -0.2%
Shanghai Composite +0.1%
Hang Seng +0.2%
Dec S&P500 +0.2% at 1,377
Dec gold +0.2% at $1,734/oz
Dec Crude Oil +0.1% at $86.15/brl
Notes/Observations
Asian equity markets are opening the new week somewhat cautiously, though indices in China are once again supported on a relative basis by better than expected economic data. Released over the weekend, October trade balance came in at a near 4-year high, as exports rose at the strongest pace since May while imports largely met expectations. China minister of commerce said the trade data demonstrates a mild improvement, while economists with ANZ and BofA saw the data as proof the economy has bottomed.
New yuan loans figures released later in the day were more disappointing, casting a shadow over mainland markets heading into close. Commodity currencies were still net gainers on China exports strength. AUD/USD rose over 30 pips to $1.0420, while USD/CAD fell back below the parity level.
Over in Japan, Q3 preliminary GDP saw the economy dip into contraction for the first time in 5 quarters. Japanese exports continued to be weighed down by the strong yen with a fall of just over 5% - the biggest decline since Q2 of 2011. Private consumption, Japan's biggest GDP component, also moved faster to the downside with a -0.8% decline vs -0.1% prior.
Speaking after the data, PM Noda said the latest GDP require a greater sense of urgency, and BOJ Gov Shirakawa pledged to continue the policy of "powerful monetary easing." Japanese yen weakened briefly against the greenback to trade above ¥79.50 before paring those losses. AUD/JPY was the biggest mover on the crosses with a 30pip surge above ¥82.80.
In Europe, Greek parliament handily passed the 2013 budget legislation that was seen as the final local hurdle for Athens to receive the €32B tranche from lenders. This vote was also not as close as the austerity steps enacted last week when the passage came down to 3 votes, as 167 lawmakers voted in favor of the draft. Greek PM Samaras said today's vote assures relief, even though EMU parliaments must still vote to approve the Greek disbursement.
German Finance Minister Schaeuble, speaking over the weekend, said "nobody in the eurozone opposes the idea of accepting the payment of the next tranche of aid," but Greece must be able to demonstrate it can meet the attached conditions. EUR/USD firmed slightly following the vote in Athens, reaching $1.2735 session high.
Fixed Income/Currencies/Commodities
(NZ) Fixed income markets are pricing in a 22% chance of a 25bp rate cut by the RBNZ at its Dec 6th meeting - NZ press
(CN) Yuan hits the upper limit of its daily 1.0% range on OTC market at 6.2291 (19-year high)
(CN) According to Bernstein, China steel demand to rise 2.5-5.0% per year through 2015 - financial press
(JP) Moody's comments on Japan: 1st monthly current account deficit is Credit Negative
(AU) Moody's: No threat to Australia's AAA rating; Budget miss will not affect rating
(EU) ECB's Weidmann: Reiterates he is still opposed to ECB decision to fund troubled states with bond purchases - financial press
iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,075 tons from 10,030 tons - update as of Nov 9th
JJG: Goldman: Lowers 3-month wheat forecast to $9.50/bushel from $10.25 prior
Speakers/Political/In the Papers
(CN) China former PBoC advisor Yu Yongding: China will encounter yuan appreciation pressure; China economy is bottoming out - financial press
(CN) China Banking Regulator CBRC: Banking system remains healthy and risk is under control; non-performing loan ratio is low at 0.97% - China Daily
(CN) Shanghai new home sales -22.3% w/w; new home prices +3.3% w/w - Uwin
(CN) China power consumptions expected to double by 2020 - Chinese press
(JP) Japan PM Noda continued to remain silent on the timing of general election date following meeting with DPJ Secy-Gen - Nikkei News
(JP) BOJ Gov Shirakawa: Japan economy is weakening, growth likely to stall; reiterates BoJ to continue to pursue "powerful monetary easing"
(JP) Japan Fin Min Jojima: Must approve the deficit bill in Nov or bonds cannot be issued - addressing parliament
(IN) India PM Singh: Economic "gloom and doom" is receding
(GR) According to a Greece Draft MOU, budget targets are said to be tied to proceeds from privatization revenue - financial press
(GR) Greece PM Samaras: Injustices will be corrected once the economy is in surplus; Plans to exceed 2013 budget targets
(GR) German Fin Min Schaeuble: The next installment of funds is up to Greek govt This question, you should pit to my Greek colleagues and not to the German finance minister... Nobody in the eurozone opposes the idea of accepting the payment of the next tranche of aid - financial press
Asia Equities
Obayashi 1802.JP: Reports H1 Net ¥5.7B v ¥11.5B y/y, Op Profit ¥12.0B v ¥6.3B y/y, Rev ¥653.4B v ¥544.9B y/y
Shimizu 1803.JP: Reports H1 Net ¥1.6B v ¥4.5B y/y, Op Profit ¥4.3B v ¥10.2B y/y, Rev ¥598.7B v ¥560.5B y/y
NTT Docomo: 9437.JP: Releases mid-term plans: To focus on cloud computing abroad; to cut hundreds of billions of yen in costs - Asahi News
Hyundai Motor 005380.KR: Chairman: Hyundai/Kia annual production set to reach 7.05M units by the end of 2012, topping prior production target - Korean press
Leighton LEI.AU: Selected as preferred for the luxury Wynn resorts project; construction expected to begin in Dec - financial press
QBE.AU: Estimates Hurricane Sandy related losses in the $350-450M range - financial press
ORI.AU: Reports FY12 Net A$402.8M v A$642M y/y
PDN.AU: Reports Q1 net loss $45.9M v loss $123M y/y, Rev $61.3M v $103M y/y