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Kris Jay
Aug 04, 2022 11:32AM ET
Kramer may have called this correctly
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Stocks Rip Higher But Nearing A Peak
www.investing.com/analysis/stocks-rip-higher-but-nearing-a-peak-200628041
Stocks Rip Higher But Nearing A Peak
By Michael Kramer | Aug 04, 2022 03:16AM ET Stocks continued to rally yesterday, as short-covering continued with the S&P 500 up another 1.7%. The most shorted stocks are outperforming by a wide margin. The GS Most shorted index has been up nearly 31 since the middle of June, while the NASDAQ is up around 19%.
The velocity of the move and the nature of the outperformance tells us a lot about the nature of the rally, which is due to a broad short-covering rally. As I mentioned previously, CTA flows remain favorable to the rally, continuing a bit more. But we are entering a region that is likely approaching the end; we need a few pieces to fall into place, with a decent zone of resistance around the 4175 to 4230 region.
Rates likely have to move higher, especially following more hawkish commentary and the reshaping of the Fed Fund Futures curve, which shows the first rate cut doesn’t come until May. Further strengthening the case that rates will need to remain higher for longer was the ISM services report that was better than expected and suggested the real GDP is growing at a 2.4% rate, which is not recessionary.
Amazon
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is now really close to filling the gap; it needs to get just a bit higher.
Shopify
Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) may have finally broken out, clearing a significant hurdle around $40.60. Now, we just have to see if it has the juice to fill the gap at $48.50.
DocuSign
DocuSign (NASDAQ:DOCU) has a similar setup to Shopify but a huge gap to fill up to $88.
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Stocks Rip Higher But Nearing A Peak
Comments (9)
Steve Herzog
Aug 04, 2022 10:58AM ET
Good Lord people, just look at the indices on weekly charts and tell us this is anything but a solid down trend.
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Mario tragik
Aug 04, 2022 8:50AM ET
When you get someone that just have one view one side of the market only, you have to watch out because he will be more that 50%+ wrong all of the time. I follow him just to get the bear side of the coin and then gather bullish data to have a complete picture. but I never lose track of ONE SIMPLE TRUTH that a one sided analysts forget, no matter how prepared they are: ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN THE MARKETS. They reject this truth because they do not want to accept their carrers are just based on a chance game, like sport betting or a casino. They deny this truth that is just a probability game, it is a CASINO. but you can still make money in a casino.
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Kris Jay
Aug 04, 2022 8:50AM ET
Both Chris Toomey and Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley are also calling this a bull trap, no positive news coming on the horizon and only just starting the slow downs, additional rate hike in September of 75bps, so we will get both earnings compression and P/E compression in Q3 and Q4.
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Mario tragik
Aug 04, 2022 8:38AM ET
omg kramer just stop, you are making a fool of yourself.
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Semen Alexov
Aug 04, 2022 5:21AM ET
He was right all the way from the beg of the year. And he has the plausible arguments every time. If Hana wants him to “close the shorts” it means it is time to build the short position. When short covering crowd will stop to buy, who will continue on these levels?
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Samer Diab
Aug 04, 2022 5:21AM ET
what about 2021? he was bearish all year also lol. and 2020
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jason xx
Aug 04, 2022 5:21AM ET
He was wrong since 2008 and then was finally right in 2022
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Tomas No
Aug 04, 2022 5:21AM ET
Semen Alexov
Aug 04, 2022 5:21AM ET
He was bearish for the right reason. The reason was printed money that was given to you and other people, to buy out their votes. He was early. Now the time is right. Perfectly right. No “free stuff” that you got used too anymore.
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Semen Alexov
Aug 04, 2022 5:17AM ET
He is consistent and right
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Paul Browning
Aug 04, 2022 4:53AM ET
Good analysis. META's blast up had no other basis in reality other than short coming. Of course they don't deal in reality.
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Samer Diab
Aug 04, 2022 4:00AM ET
noob Michael has been bearish forever lol. no real analysis. just being a bear
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Hana Shmurak
Aug 04, 2022 3:22AM ET
Kramer, just close your shorts
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