US stocks rose yesterday, despite falling yields and a weaker dollar, and a less than stellar outlook from the Fed. The equity market seemingly continues to ignore many of the concerns, but that’s ok, we are used to it. Nothing matters, I know, until it does.
Tomorrow we get initial claims, the second-quarter GDP. It should be interesting.
Chairman Powell confirmed much of what we knew already, which was that economic recovery is already slowing. Of course, there is no way to know if this is temporary or something more. The bond market didn’t like the message, with 10-year yields dropping back to 57 bps, and the dollar index dropping to 93.25. The message bonds, and the dollar, are sending is not calling for sunshine and roses. The move higher in gold and silver is not about inflation. Powell even said, which I have said multiple times, is that the greater risk is deflation.
I continue to track a lot of bearish betting in the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ). The activity in the Qs has started to slow some, while the SPY has been picking up. Perhaps, I will be wrong, but the message I am getting from the market has been somewhat concerning. I have been wrong plenty of times and seems like, over the past four months, more than I have been right. But I have been doing this a long time, and sometimes that happens.
1. Dollar
The dollar is sitting on a considerable level right now.
2. NASDAQ 100
You don’t want to see the NASDAQ 100 cross 10,400, that is for sure.
3. Microsoft
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) just continues to hug the uptrend for now.
4. Micron
I saw more bearish betting today in Micron (NASDAQ:MU), which sets up the potential for the stock to fall to $45.50.
5. GE
GE (NYSE:GE) managed to finish the day just above support, and so it lives to fight another day, and the reverse head and shoulders pattern remains.
Anyway, that’s all.