It's never easy shorting a rising bull market, especially when it is in a extreme overbought sentiment as we are in currently. Because it can stay overbought longer than anyone can anticipate or expect.
We have to understand that extreme overbought condition is actually a good thing for the market in the long run, however, it means odds are catching up against the buyers in the interemediate term (several months).
Soon or later the market will pullback and I can not tell you when it will pullback, but I can tell you that, it will pullback when no one expects it to pullback. Because this is the phase where so many people are chaing this move to the upside, because they were not able to profit last year. Because they lost money shorting last year. Because they were scared last year. So, now, they don't want ot miss out---and this is how the danger come about when it comes to trading; chasing is always deadly for any market paricipants.
Furthermore, this is how the market operates, as the traders and investors starts to think and believe and lie to themselves that 'we are now enterting into a new era of trading,' that's when the market will punish them hard.
If you are a long-term investor and holding many stocks, this is a GOOD news for you and I believe market is going to have another good year. Best bet is, you could put some hedges on to protect your long-term stocks from the decline that is about to come.
But if you are a trader, especially a Options trader, I would be very cautious up here trying to chase this thing to the upside; but know this, I wouldn't trying to short this thing either.
It's always tough business trying to time the pullback perfectly to profit.
