The S&P 500 index surged more than 2 percent today, closing at new highs for the volatile uptrend from early June and the cyclical bull market from 2009.
The strong advance today generated a cycle low signal, confirming that the beta low (BL) of the current short-term cycle formed during the previous session. Additionally, the strong move above the last alpha high (AH) reconfirms right translation and favors a continuation of the violent, choppy price behavior that has persisted since early June.
As we outlined in the recent secular trend review, stock market risk remains near a historic high and extreme caution is warranted. The environment of elevated volatility will continue to provide short-term trading opportunities, but the speculative rebound from June has returned the risk/reward profile of the stock market to the worst 1 percentile of all historical observations during the last 80 years, so it is a very dangerous time for stocks from an investment perspective and we remain fully defensive.