- SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 12/27/17 at 2682.62.
- Monitoring purposes Gold: Long GDX on 12/20/17 at 22.49
- Long-Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral.
We are looking for signs of exhaustion or exuberance and so far not finding much. The volume (bottom window) has dropped the last couple of days and can mean uptrend is loosing steam but market has moved higher in the past with low volume. Top window is the McClellan Oscillator which is above “0” and bullish for now. The Tick and TRIN are not showing signs of exhaustion. Though market is extended (RSI >80) it still can move higher. Long SPX on 12/27/17 at 2682.62. Follow us are twitter. @OrdOracle. Ask for free 30 day trial.
Yes we have showed this chart five days in a row but its telling an important event and that is when exuberance is present in the market. The chart above dates back one year. Previous short term highs in the SPX occurred when the NYSE Up volume reached above +750. So far on this SPX rally since the start of trading in January, the NYSE up volume has not reached above +750. Today’s reading came in at +359.95 and actually declined from yesterday. So far the NYSE Up Volume has not reached above +750, suggesting rally can continue. The Top window is the NYSE McClellan Oscillator. Readings above “0” are a bullish sign for the market and below low “0” a bearish sign. Today the McClellan Oscillator closed at +37; and above “0” and bullish for now. Long SPX on 12/27/17 at 2682.62.
The COT Commercials short position reported at 178K last week; up from 149K the week before. Gold commercials shorts near 210K and higher have formed short term tops for gold. The chart dates back in late 2015. The second window up from the bottom is the 50 day average of the Up Down Volume. This is a longer term indicator and does not give many signals but when it has they have been accurate. A close above ‘0” on this indicator gives a longer term bullish signal and yesterday it closed at .62. We have circled in red the other times it closed above “0” over the last couple of years and all have produced a profit. Next window up is the 50 day average of the Advance/Decline and it too is a longer term indicator which also closed above “0” giving a longer term bullish sign. For very short term GDX has retraced some but does not appear it will be lasting and therefore we are hold our long GDX position. A possible upside target is the September high near 25.00 range. There is a cycle high due at the end of January where a larger top may form and an area a worthwhile pull back could form and a more interesting signal to watch for. Support lies near 2.75. Long GDX on 12/20/17 at 22.49. New Book release "The Secret Science of Price and Volume" by Timothy Ord.