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S&P 500 Nears 200 DMA, Nasdaq in Bull Trap, Russell 2000 Faces Key Support Test

Published 10/30/2023, 03:03 AM

Daily charts show indexes in a bit of a freefall, so the focus shifts to weekly timeframes. The S&P 500 was the last of the lead indexes to break weekly-trend support, lining up the 200-day MA for the next support test.

Volume climbed to register as distribution, rubbing salt into the wound of bulls. The only positive for bulls is that intermediate stochastics [39,1] are above the bullish mid-line, but with other technicals turning negative it's unlikely to stop the rot.SPX-Weekly Chart

The Nasdaq lost weekly support and is testing (ironically) the bullish 'Golden Cross', but this latter bullish signal is looking more of a 'bull trap', and I expect this index to continue lower.

Last week's selling volume didn't quite rank as distribution, but volume was still high. Despite breaking the rising trend it hasn't challenged intermediate stochastic support, and this might be critical in the coming weeks.

COMPQ-Weekly Chart

The index most on the rack is the Russell 2000. It has made its way all the way back to 2022 June lows, lows that I had marked as a major buying opportunity for investors as it occurred near the 200-week MA.

The situation is more damaging now with the 200-week MA long since breached, and technicals net negative in a straight push to this key swing low.

Worse to come appears likely or a weak bounce at best. I should add that investors shouldn't be fearful here; yes, the index can go lower, but if there is a crash it will make its way back and there will be real value in small-cap stocks. IWM-Weekly Chart

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As a final chart, I will show the Semiconductor Index. The weekly chart is back at key price support alongside its 50-week MA (effectively, the 200-day MA).

It's still weeks away from a test of its 200-week MA that other indexes have now breached. If this can hold it will offer support for the Nasdaq and potentially spread some goodwill to other indexes.

SOX-Weekly Chart

Latest comments

I would wait till 3800 or even 3600 then back up the truck. The 4200 isn’t where Institutional buyers come in but retail thinks thats the time to enter but i would get in or add at 3800 then 3600 . If 3800 isn’t breached then all the better , one wouldn’t lose anything and its better to get in when a confirmation is made anyway. Nice read though, cheers!
What is the value of an index like Nasdaq that can’t actually be traded ?NDAQ not an index (sometimes people argue so its a preemptive strike,not the author but rather by rubberneckers) Its 7 stocks for the most part,a few in NYSE as well as S&P. We raised similar questions during Finance classes but never got a real answer,then AAPL ( in a downfall yet again ) is highly weighted in hundreds of ETFs (337 ) so ETFs aren’t that safe either (in some its 25% weighted). I know this is about AMZN but its quite similar & the # 337 just takes your breath away .What can we use the Nasdaq infex for? People like Chamal (after adding cocaine to FB, some Doctors believe that FB is more addictive & more harmful dumped so many worthless SPACS on Nasdaq along with other Charlatans (some actual Doctors,TDOC poster child ,with PE that was in hundreds & negative Earnings yet price was over $100 then dilution after dilution ! How is this not a crime? I would give them 10 years in F.Pen ( Madoff lite) 🤮
thanks for analysis
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