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Silver Futures (/SI) continue to display a dynamic interplay between short-term volatility and longer-term cycle structure. As of August 28, 2025, prices are consolidating near $39.68, up +1.19% on the session. The market staged a sharp rally from the weekly buy zone at $37.64, climbing toward a high of $39.86, only to stall beneath the critical resistance band defined by the Daily Sell 1 ($39.44), Daily Sell 2 ($39.63), and Weekly Sell 1 ($39.77) levels. This cluster of resistance has temporarily capped momentum and sets the stage for a pivotal inflection.
From the perspective of the VC PMI framework, the weekly pivot at $38.37 continues to anchor price discovery. Demand has been well-defended above Daily Buy 1 ($38.84) and Daily Buy 2 ($38.47), creating a rising floor of support. If buyers maintain control above the daily pivot at $39.08, probability favors retesting and potentially exceeding the $39.77–$40.00 resistance zone. A confirmed breakout would establish a target toward $40.20–$40.50, the next harmonic extension.
Cycle analysis adds depth to this outlook. The 30-day Gann cycle, measured from the July 29th pivot low, suggests this current rally phase is nearing a crest into early September, where time and price may converge around $40.20–$40.60 before a corrective reaction unfolds. Meanwhile, the 360-day master cycle, dating back to August 2024, has entered its final quadrant, amplifying volatility and reinforcing the potential for accelerated price swings as silver approaches a one-year anniversary cycle window. Historically, this window has coincided with intermediate-term turning points, either confirming trend continuation or signaling a sharp reversal.
Fibonacci retracements frame the tactical battlefield: the 23.6% level at $39.86 aligns with the intraday high, while the 38.2% level at $39.27 offers first support. Below that, the 61.8% retracement at $38.01 coincides with Weekly Buy levels, making it a decisive risk anchor for medium-term traders. Momentum indicators, particularly the MACD, have begun to recover from a neutral base, hinting that bulls retain the edge if resistance zones give way.
In summary, silver sits at a critical juncture. Holding above $39.08 favors the bullish continuation case, targeting $40+. Failure to clear $39.77–$40.00, however, risks a corrective retracement back toward $38.80 and potentially $38.01, where the next major demand zone resides. Traders should remain cycle-conscious: the 30-day window warns of a possible near-term top, while the 360-day structure suggests a major directional move is imminent into Q4 2025.
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