Semi-Elect: Post-Election Market Scenarios

As much as I enjoy discussing politics, I have stayed far away from any political discussions on Slope. I once was a rather strident Libertarian, but I finally came to realize - - - and I'm quite serious about this - - - that I was projecting my own good sense and decency on the rest of the world and realized that, frankly, some folks actually DO need to be mollycoddled since they just don't have a clue. Libertarians, I'm afraid, have a rather optimistic view of human nature that perhaps might be misguided, as much as I wish that weren't the case.

I haven't been shy, though, about putting my stake in the ground not about my beliefs, but about my predictions: I think the popular vote is going to be one of those 48/52 or 49/51 type deals (with Obama squeaking out a victory) and a very lopsided Electoral College victory for Oh Bummer. In thinking about what's ahead for the markets, I would offer three scenarios.

Scenario (a) postulates that whatever "bounce" we were going to enjoy has already been exhausted, and we pretty much fart our way down to my all-too-oft-cited target (I am using the NQ here as a guide, but it applies to the market as a whole).

Scenario (b) suggests one last gasp (which would be Tuesday) at a rally, pushing us to a critical dividing line, and then the aforementioned farting can begin.

The final scenario, which I consider the least likely but certainly is never out of the question, is a big reversal skyward in the market, shoving aside the resistance lines I've drawn (such a scenario, of course, would also initiate Sad Tim mode). A Romney victory, for one thing, would, I think, create such a reversal.

It was dead quiet today, and I imagine it'll continue to be dead quiet until Tuesday night, when results start tumbling in. So I'll probably end it here and simply look at charts on my own, preparing for the days ahead. Thanks for being part of Slope!