In Sweden , the week(s) ahead contain only one thing of interest: March CPI data (on Tuesday 11 April, 09:30 CEST). Indeed, we will also receive the March labour force survey the day before (Monday 10 April, 09:30 CEST), but we suspect that this data will take a backseat position from a market perspective.
According to our calculations, the core inflation numbers (CPIF ex energy) are set to come in at 0.9% y/y, which is 0.3 percentage points below the Riksbank's latest forecast (the same deviation is expected to hold in CPIF terms).
Anyway you bend it, this should constitute a big problem for the Riksbank.At its upcoming monetary policy meeting (27 April), the Executive Board is now set to weigh up both a centralised wage negotiation deal far below any reasonable ex ante forecast and (probably) a much lower-than-expected inflation outcome.
In Norway , inflation figures for March are due to be released on Monday. We believe that much of the drop in prices for imported goods is down to a faster pass-through from the krone's appreciation than expected. We have also seen a surprise fall in food prices and airfares recently.
All in all, we estimate unchanged core inflation of 1.6% y/y in March. This would once again be well below Norges Bank's projections in the last monetary policy report (1.83% y/y).
In Denmark , Monday brings inflation figures for March. In February, food prices were pushed up by a shortage of vegetables from southern Europe due to bad weather. The situation now seems to have normalised, so we predict inflation of 0.1% m/m and 1.0% y/y.
We also look at the impact of the decision by the Czech central bank on the Danish krone to remove the floor below EUR/CZK.
To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below