Retail Traders Set Direction on Quiet Day

TODAY
Really quiet day today as markets just seemed to grind along. Typically when we see really low volume markets grind in the path of least resistance which is normally in the direction of Retail Traders who are making up the majority of the volume and today was really no different. Aussie rate decision over night which could offer some interesting plays if we see the RBA talk the Aussie down, todays highs could offer some good value if they do.

EUR/USD
We currently hold short in this pair from 1.3150 mark, having previously closed our longs from 1.2910.
Today really was a nothing day in the pair but early Retail Trader selling continued throughout the day and the pair pushed higher.
In really low volume we wouldn't expect this pair to push a lot higher without further volume with the 1.3100 level pretty key above, however it will be key to watch current action in the order book. If we continue to see Retailers selling into the 4th of July we could see the EUR/USD pop higher.

Daily chart is looking pretty interesting with the pair creeping back up to the 200 Day SMA today. Along with the 1.3100 handle this is a key level, however we still like this pair for a move lower from here.

Intraday we like using the higher stochastic crosses to look for shorts (one could be setting up very soon, potentially tomorrow morning)

GBP/USD
Pound chopped sideways today without really achieving anything.
Retail Traders still essentially buying this pair which could point to a move lower, however the daily chart really needs to correct from its large push lower so we could easily see the pair take a breather at these levels.
We currently hold short this pair.


Daily chart really is slightly over done here so we wouldn't be surprised to see this pair catch its breath a little before its next key move.
Intraday, like the Euro, we will looking for upper stochastic crosses to enter short, looking for bounces and the general grind higher to offer better value, potentially the daily close could offer an initial short opportunity.

AUD/USD
Aussie pushed nicely higher today with our order book system closing shorts and jumping long. The system is still really looking for short term moves given the order book extremes but is doing very well.
We suspect we could continue to see some good swings in this pair as it grinds generally lower.


Watch the RBA rate decision tonight, we could see a move lower if they talk the Aussie down again highlighting the potential for rate cuts in the near future.
This pair has further room to the downside and we could see this pair continue to drop. The drop would also be welcomed in Australia so they are unlikely to do too much about it until a much lower level.
We do like the idea of a higher stochastic cross on the 4hr chart around the RBA rate decision and conference providing a good short option.

USD/CHF
Pair is really struggling to push higher in the light volumes however we are continuing to see Retail Traders close out there long positions, which is this gathers some momentum we could see a move lower.


Daily chart does look heavy however and we suspect we could be due a bounce lower before a further push higher.


EUR/AUD
We highlighted in our week ahead analysis the similarites between this pair and the Aussie order book (for obvious reasons really).
We suspect we are still in correctional mode and with Retail Traders heavily short this pair (they have been since around the 1.2500 mark), we could still see this pair push higher.
We continue to hold long from 1.4000.

All that said the Daily chart does seem to be carving out a bit of a top and potentially offering some correctional relief from the continued push higher.
1.4000 level is key in this pair, but we could aleady be on our way back up to test recent highs.