THIS WEEK
So bit of an odd week this week with NFP now on Tuesday, which could put us in a rather odd month end situation.
Following the resolution in the US we have seen the US dollar push further lower setting new yearly lows, however the recent trends now depend largely on data out of the US. Although the US shutdown is likely to play a part in upcoming data we could find a mixed bag in the delayed data as this was based on information prior to the shutdown.
Overall we expect the US to recover the fastest and week US Dollar is likely to support this. However the key to buying US dollar will be to wait for confirmation of a turn and a longer trend rather than to buy dips as we have seen Retail Traders do for the time being.
The aggressive buying in the US dollar by Retail Traders has put Retail Order Books at extreme lows which we have not seen for a long while (we can’t remember when), this means any push higher is likely going to require a correctional move to clear some space.
No COT data this week again as the CFTC haven’t published the reports, when we do get it though our Indicator for NinjaTrader will automatically update, it could be extremely interesting to see how Non Commercials are placed now with the dollar at lows, are they expecting further weakness?
EUR/USD
Long: 1.3550
RTAS Order Book systems continue to hold longs in this pair as we continued to see Retail Sellers on Friday. We are now at super extremes in the order book and we would not be surprised to see some for of minor correction before any further move higher. Pair sits in a tight support and resistance range between 1.37 and 1.3650.EUR/USD Daily Chart" title="EUR/USD Daily Chart" width="1112" height="1000" src="https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/picc24ef37fd96b1cc7912931a72889e5da.jpg">
The Pair now sits in a nice resistance area and we wouldn’t be surprised to see a dip in the pair as some of the Retail Short positions are unwound, NFP could also produce normal volatility. 1.3785 is the next major resistance level and if this pair now finds support we could see a further push higher. Weekly resistance and yearly highs come in around the 1.3700 mark.
EUR/USD Daily Chart" title="EUR/USD Daily Chart" width="1112" height="1000" src="https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/piccebe33ec4ae4455cf83fa9a1edd545ac.jpg">
GBP/USD
Long: 1.5930
Order Book systems continue to hold longs in this pair as it tested the 1.6200 resistance and dipped on minor profit taking on Friday. The 1.6200 is a major level in this pair with a lot of orders bunched around this level. If we break past this level we could be on for new yearly highs.GBP/USD Daily Chart" title="GBP/USD Daily Chart" width="1112" height="1000" src="https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/pic8bad8206e1d1d88e00fd10304522d9e8.jpg">
The Pair is now approaching that key resistance zone (marked as a blue box on my charts), a break into this area and we are likely to see some chop, if we hold below we could see a reversal now back towards the 1.6000 support zone. Despite the support we are actually in relative no mans land with this cross at the moment this could be the formation of a slightly wonky head and shoulders or double top formation for a push lower or the support of the next major leg higher.
GBP/USD Daily Chart" title="GBP/USD Daily Chart" width="1112" height="1000" src="https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/picd31eddd6a8227ba33bd94e256e11cd78.jpg">
AUD/USD
Short: 0.9665
Order book systems booked profits on longs and jumped short on Friday in this pair as we started to see some Retail Buying in the cross. However the Order Book flattened a lot on Friday and we could see this jump long again quickly on further selling or a weekend gap.AUD/USD Daily Chart" title="AUD/USD Daily Chart" width="1112" height="1000" src="https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/pic99d99e72bb74f89666b1d30c6db5fe9c.jpg">
The Pair has now crept into our nice resistance zone where we will be keeping a very close eye on its approach to the 200 day sma and the 0.9700 level. We expect strong resistance at these levels. Pair also sits in a nice overbought region on the RSI now and could correct initially before making a run at these levels. One to wait patiently on as Retail Traders continue to sell the cross, if we get some nice resistance and Retail Buying we could see the next major leg lower in the pair.
AUD/USD Daily Chart" title="AUD/USD Daily Chart" width="1112" height="1000" src="https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/pic9e657a6352a6da4a9cebf1851008f805.jpg">
EUR/AUD
Short: 1.4330
The RTAS Order Book systems maintained shorts as the pair tested the 1.4150 support level again and crept just past it at the close. Retail Order Books are now pretty flat in this pair and we need to see how it reacts to the current level. If it does break and hold below the 1.4150 we would expect to see a much larger move lower.EUR/AUD Daily Chart" title="EUR/AUD Daily Chart" width="1112" height="1000" src="https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/pic6800de5c5a14167debe2d94aeb567345.jpg">
The Pair held below our major range we were previously tracking. It has now set a minor daily range and the next move could set a large tone in this cross. Retail Traders seem reluctant to buy this cross and therefore another failed attempt at the 1.4150 could see this pair push higher, at the moment though we have crept below and if we can hold this then a test of the 1.4000 level could easily be on the cards.
EUR/AUD Daily Chart" title="EUR/AUD Daily Chart" width="1112" height="1000" src="https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/picde960b9989caf70cb4ccc396078a187b.jpg">
EUR/GBP
Long: 0.8450
Order Book systems switched to longs on Friday as the pair found some minor support at the 0.8440 level again. 0.8470 area now acts as key resistance in the pair and on the 4hr chart this pair does look like it could make another push lower.EUR/GBP Daily Chart" title="EUR/GBP Daily Chart" width="1112" height="1000" src="https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/pic338a13bcf1cd4c9e36d531ac4cb13d13.jpg">
The 0.8500 level seems to be acting as key resistance in this cross, if we break above this we could see a run at the 200 day SMA. However that said this pair does look like it could be ready to roll over and push lower again as multiple tests of support have been chipping away at the orders, RSI and Price have a nice downtrend in action. If we do see a break of support we would expect to see us push to test yearly lows again in the pair.
EUR/GBP Daily Chart" title="EUR/GBP Daily Chart" width="1112" height="1000" src="https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/pic8c163aca65219bd5a044c82b034f8b65.jpg">