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Quebec: Real GDP Down In January, Flat In February

ByThe National Bank of Canada
Published 05/28/2012, 01:27 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
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FACTS:

The Institut de la statistique du Québec reports that Quebec real GDP at basic prices was flat in February (Canada −0.2%) after a revised retreat of 0.3% in January (Canada +0.1%). Goods production edged up 0.1% in February, though production was down in every sector except manufacturing (up 0.7%, due mostly to a 16.4%
jump in machinery output) and construction (flat, despite a 0.6% retreat in homebuilding). Even in manufacturing, however, only nine of the 20 industry groups advanced on the month. Output of services was flat, with a 2.2% decline in professional, scientific and technical services offset by a 0.5% gain in the sector combining finance and insurance, real estate and leasing services and business administration.
Quebec Real GDP down in January, flat in February
OPINION: This morning’s report shows a Quebec economy smaller in February than it was in December (top chart). However, since the strong gain of December was not entirely erased, GDP would come in 0.4% higher in 2012 than in 2011 even if it were flat for the rest of the year (middle chart). We expect 2012 GDP growth of 1.4%, with some expansion in exports offsetting a decline in government infrastructure investment. Meanwhile, despite the weak reports for January and February, the December handoff leaves Q1 GDP on track for quarterly real growth of 0.7% annualized (bottom chart). Signals for March are mixed: advances in manufacturing sales, wholesale sales and existing-home sales, slight declines in retail sales and housing starts. However, starts came back strongly in April, and the Labour Force Survey now reports employment back to normal after a dizzying drop in Q4.
year growth likely in 2012 despite a slow start

Quarterly change in GDP after two months of Q1

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