At their current level, the consequences of the sanctions imposed on Qatar are bearable: alternative commercial channels are used and Qatar's two main strengths are preserved: LNG exports and the sovereign wealth fund (more than 200% of GDP).
However, these tensions have arisen against a background of declining economic conditions. The stagnation of hydrocarbon output and falling oil prices have eaten into economic growth (3.9% per year since 2012, compared to 16% between 2007 and 2010).
In addition, to make the investment set out in the Vision 2030 programme and for the 2022 World Cup (some USD 200 billion announced), the emirate has made massive use of external borrowing estimated at 80% of GDP (excluding banks) in 2016. At the same time, the net external position of the banking sector is currently negative at nearly 30% of GDP, from 3.9% in 2014. Qatar's ability to retain access to external financing is therefore crucial. An extension of sanctions to the financial sector would have a significant effect on economic prospects. The use of the sovereign wealth fund might be possible, but is subject to certain constraints: some assets are relatively illiquid and a significant share of the fund consists of domestic assets.
by Pascal DEVAUX