Q4 Review And The Year Ahead

By Cumberland Advisors (David Kotok)ETFsDec 17, 2018 01:52PM ET

www.investing.com/analysis/q4-review-and-the-year-ahead-200368832

Q4 Review And The Year Ahead

By Cumberland Advisors (David Kotok) | Dec 17, 2018 01:52PM ET

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US500

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VIX

0.00%

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The 2018 US stock market showed major changes in the fourth quarter. Volatility scared investors and some panicked. Others changed asset allocations. Suddenly, 2% on cash equivalents had resonance. In the worst single week, US stocks lost $1 trillion in market value, revisiting the lows of the year.

Reasons: The Trump Trade War, Fed uncertainty, slowing growth, the Brexit mess, White House chaos and worsening POTUS legal problems, political changes in the House of Representatives, possible impeachment in 2019, oil market price collapse, Russian aggression in Crimea and Venezuela. I will stop.

The Good News

We are using any pull back as an opportunity to add to our equity positions and expect a deeply oversold market to rebound early next year. We are overweight the healthcare sector using three different ETFs. While we do not see a recession, we do see S&P 500 earnings of $175 or so in 2019. For us, that means a 2900-3000 range is fairly priced in in an environment of low interest rates, low inflation and slow growth. Of course, this could change at any time.

We wish you a healthy and happy new year. It sure is a complex and challenging world.

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Central Banks

Interest Rates

Next Meeting

FED

4.50%

Feb 01, 2023

ECB

2.50%

Feb 02, 2023

BOE

3.50%

Feb 02, 2023

SNB

1.00%

Mar 23, 2023

RBA

3.10%

Feb 07, 2023

BOC

4.50%

Mar 08, 2023

RBNZ

4.25%

Feb 22, 2023

BOJ

-0.10%

Mar 10, 2023

CBR

7.50%

Feb 10, 2023

RBI

6.25%

Feb 08, 2023

PBOC

3.65%

BCB

13.75%

Feb 01, 2023

US 30	33,965.9	+16.5	+0.05%
US 500	4,068.9	+8.5	+0.21%
Dow Jones	33,978.08	+28.67	+0.08%
S&P 500	4,070.56	+10.13	+0.25%
Nasdaq	11,621.71	+109.30	+0.95%
S&P 500 VIX	18.51	0.00	0.00%
Dollar Index	101.735	+0.097	+0.10%

Crude Oil WTI	79.38	-1.63	-2.01%
Brent Oil	86.40	0.00	0.00%
Natural Gas	2.856	+0.008	+0.28%
Gold	1,928.00	-2.00	-0.10%
Silver	23.725	-0.295	-1.23%
Copper	4.2300	-0.0375	-0.88%
US Soybeans	1,512.00	-10.00	-0.66%

U.S. 10Y	3.507	+-0.011	+-0.31%
U.S. 30Y	3.626	-0.008	-0.23%
U.S. 5Y	3.6119	+-0.0091	+-0.25%
U.S. 3M	4.6774	+0.0004	+0.01%
US 10Y T-Note	114.61	-0.25	-0.22%
Euro Bund	137.57	-0.18	-0.13%
10-2 Yield Spread	-69.58	-1.09	1.59%

Apple	145.93	+1.97	+1.37%
Alphabet A	99.37	+1.85	+1.90%
Tesla	177.88	+17.61	+10.99%
Amazon.com	102.24	+3.02	+3.04%
Netflix	360.77	-4.10	-1.12%
Meta Platforms	151.74	+4.44	+3.01%
Bank of America	35.45	+0.11	+0.31%

Q4 Review And The Year Ahead

The Good News

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