We believe one of the main reasons for the devaluation of Probiodrug AG (AS:PDB) shares over the past year was the largely disappointing industry newsflow frustrating research on Abeta theory, even though Probiodrug’s technology is differentiated from all other Abeta therapies studied in late-stage trials. The recent surprise announcement of disease-modifying effect obtained by Biogen/Eisai with their MAb BAN2401 in a Phase II trial may reignite interest in the amyloid theory and in the Alzheimer’s disease (AD) field in general. While funding and lack of visibility on a partnering deal are near-term risks, we find Probiodrug’s asset PQ912, a small molecule glutaminyl cyclase (QC) inhibitor, and its Phase IIa data interesting. In our view, any progress with raising new funds or finding a partnering would unlock substantial upside from the current low valuation level.
Spotlight on Abeta MAbs after Biogen’s Ph II results
Over the last decade there has been no lack of disappointing industry news on AD research, including multiple failures of Abeta-targeting antibodies. There have been three BACE inhibitor failures so far this year: verubecestat (Merck), atabecestat (Janssen) and lanabecestat (Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY), AstraZeneca). This negative news dampened investor confidence in Abeta-targeting strategies. However, results from Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB) and Eisai’s Phase II trial with Abeta antibody BAN2401 showed a statistically significant disease modifying effect, which is a holy grail in AD research, and revived some hope for Abeta targeted therapies.
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