Join +750K new investors every month who copy stock picks from billionaire's portfoliosSign Up Free

Oracle Earnings Preview: Long-Term Growth Trend Is Key

Published 09/19/2012, 03:08 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
ORCL
-
ORCL
-

Last quarter, Oracle’s (ORCL) financial performance strengthened QoQ and YoY to the annual QE May cyclical high. This quarter, the QE August, performance is projected to slow significantly QoQ but increase YoY. The YoY growth in earnings per share (GAAP and Non-GAAP) will be the key. The EPS GAAP +11.3% YoY is the benchmark, the acceptable minimum to remain enthused about ORCL stock on a fundamental basis.

GAAP earnings per share year over year has been impressive at +11.3%, +19.5%, +16.2%, and +33.3% the past four quarters but the trend has been downwards. The prior quarter was +11.3% and a trend reversal and upswing above that would encourage investors.

The long-term trend is clearly upwards as evidenced by the GAAP EPS chart below as each May peak is higher YoY and to a lesser extent for total revenues. The biggest performance concern is the flat to decreasing YoY growth rates in total revenues and slowing YoY growth rates in earnings per share. The biggest financial position negative has been the debt. This was at 21% of total assets, down from a peak of 26% for the QE August 2010. Financial position continues acceptable with adequate capital, moderate debt, and reasonable liquidity.

Estimated QE August 2012 Total Revenues (GAAP and Non-GAAP)
Yahoo Finance Estimates: $8.43B avg, $8.26B low, $8.81B high, 37 analysts
Prior Quarter: $10.92B = -22.8% QoQ
Prior Year: $8.37B = +0.72% YoY
Outlook: none provided

Estimated QE August 2012 Earnings per Share (Non-GAAP)
Yahoo Finance Estimates: $0.53 avg, $0.48 low, $0.55 high, 40 analysts
Prior Quarter: $0.82 = -35.4% QoQ
Prior Year: $0.48 = +10.4% YoY
Outlook: $0.51 to $0.55

Oracle Outlook QE August 2012 Oracle estimates QE August 2012 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.51 to $0.55 and analysts project the midpoint $0.53. This would be an significant -35% decrease QoQ, as expected, but a +10% increase YoY. Oracle projects revenues YoY from -2% to +1%. Analysts project $8.43 billion, which would be a -23% QoQ and +0.72% YoY.

Prior Quarter: Oracle Reports Strong Quarter at Annual Cyclical Peak
Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

Chart 4

Chart 5

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.