Putting aside last night's oil spill, two key drivers should keep markets supported, Russian production declining and Chinese mobility indicators rising.
On the broader macro landscape, global data, for the most part, augers for some landing other than hard that should keep the dollar on the defensive and favorable for oil prices.
The Fed-generated deflation was the most significant driver of price downside, but with the Fed finally downshifting as inflation eases, that is a subplot positive.
But as the markets wait for factual details of those two primary solid catalysts (China + Russia), price action is likely to lag positive news but react aggressively to recession risk, any post-LNY downside in Chinese restocking demand, or upside in Russian production.
Once again, investors could be shifting the burden of proof toward visibility on bullish fundamentals before being willing to deploy risk above current ranges.
We are coming off a year where investor returns were generated through carry via higher backwardation rather than through smooth trending higher spot prices. Passive investors are looking to play again, but it could be an H2 story once Fed terminal rate has passed.