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Oil Could Stall On Sideways Move

Published 08/10/2016, 10:43 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Oil's Inverse Head-and-Shoulders Vs. Triangle

Crude oil seems to think it has put in a bottom for the right shoulder of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which is highly unlikely at this time of year.

Plus, oil has drawn a rising megaphone on its 60-minute chart that implies its bounce will stall out a little higher.

Oil Rising Megaphone Should Start Higher Top

Oil Rising Megaphone (Blue) on 60-Minute Chart Should Start a Top a Little Higher

If oil can put in a clean H&S within its blue rising megaphone, it will probably break out into a fast-move down to retest the January low and set up a triangle bottom (green scenario in lower chart).

If oil breaks out of the rising megaphone without completing a H&S top within, it will likely megaphone its way to a retest of the triangle top before working its way to the triangle bottom (purple scenario in lower chart).

The blue triangle in the top chart can break out to a new low that would be the bottom of a larger inverse head and shoulders. A larger inverse head and shoulders would likely have a target around 90 after breakout.

Or, a triangle right shoulder can complete on the existing inverse H&S before a breakout to roughly 75.

Either way, this sideways move is likely to eat up months.

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