OECD Leading Indicators: Easing Pace Of Economic Activity

The overall OECD composite leading indicators dipped to 100.3 in June 2012. This was after being flat at 100.4 for 4 consecutive months. The decreasing USA reading led the way at 100.9, followed by steeply declining Japan at 100.5. A rallying UK (99.9) is now above the plunging euro area (99.4). The euro area has decreased for 14 of the past 16 months.

A slowing South Africa (100.7) continues leading the major emerging economies in June 2012, followed by a diving Russia (99.5), steadying China (99.3), and leveling Brazil (99.0). A declining Indonesia (98.9) and fading India (97.9) continue decreasing.

OECD composite leading indicators still point to easing in the pace of economic activity in most major economies 09/08/2012 – Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue to point to an easing of economic activity in most major OECD economies and slowdowns in most major non-OECD economies. The CLIs for Japan and the United States show signs of a fading growth momentum.

Editor’s Note: Monthly data is revised back a year or more with each monthly release. This results in these composite leading indicators being more of a coincident and/or lagging indicator and not really a leading indicator. What good is a leading indicator if backward revisions are made? A self-fulfilling prophecy and rewrite of the forecast doesn’t do much good. Therefore this data appears more useful relative to other countries and for a general trend.

About The OECD: The 34 OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chili, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, plus the Euro Area and European Union. Accession countries are now are just the Russian Federation. Enhanced Engagement Economies are Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and South Africa.