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Odds Favor Lower Bond Yields in Months Ahead

By Chris KimbleBondsJan 20, 2023 12:04AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/odds-favor-lower-bond-yields-in-months-ahead-200634529
Odds Favor Lower Bond Yields in Months Ahead
By Chris Kimble   |  Jan 20, 2023 12:04AM ET
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Interest rates have risen rather quickly as the Federal Reserve attempts to fight inflation. Will the move be a case of too far, too fast?

Today’s long-term monthly chart of the United States 10-Year treasury bond yield seems to think so.

TNX Monthly Chart
TNX Monthly Chart

In my humble opinion, the chart below puts the Federal Reserve’s 2.5-year move in perspective — and it seems to be a real outlier of the past 60 years.

As you can see, the 10-year bond yield rallied up to the 23% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1980s high/2020s low (green line). And, while doing so, it recorded a Rate-Of-Change (ROC) that we haven’t seen before: yields are up 560% in 30 months.

That is up 400% more than any 30-month period in the past 60 years. It looks like it’s time for a breather.

Time will tell if the Federal Reserve rose interest rates too fast. Stay tuned.

Odds Favor Lower Bond Yields in Months Ahead
 

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Odds Favor Lower Bond Yields in Months Ahead

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Comments (1)
Raja Halazon
Raja Halazon Jan 20, 2023 3:54AM ET
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Great article,Or time will also tell if FED may act slow in lowering rates or act too expeditiously
 
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