On the eve of the meeting of the RBNZ on the topic of monetary policy, the publication of data on the foreign trade of New Zealand was held. The Statistics Bureau of New Zealand reported on Tuesday that the trade surplus of the country in February amounted to 12 million New Zealand dollars (a deficit of 109 million New Zealand dollars was forecast). At the same time, exports amounted to $ 4.82 billion in February (compared with the forecast of 4.70 billion and the previous value of $ 4.33 billion).
Over the past two weeks, the New Zealand dollar has strengthened, which is associated by economists with optimism around the US-China trade negotiations. The RBNZ interest rate decision will be published on Wednesday (01:00 GMT).
Probably, the rate will remain at the same level of 1.75%. Market participants expect the rate of the RBNZ to remain at the current level throughout 2019 and the first half of 2020.
Meanwhile, NZD/USD is developing an upward trend above key support levels of 0.6865 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800, started in July 2014; the wave minima are near the level of 0.6260), 0.6815 (ЕМА200 on daily chart). Growth targets are at resistance levels of 0.6980 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7060 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
The alternative scenario will be associated with the breakdown of the support level of 0.6815 and a decline to the support levels of 0.6750, 0.6700, which will increase the risk of NZD/USD returning to a bearish trend.
Support levels: 0.6900, 0.6865, 0.6840, 0.6815, 0.6750, 0.6700, 0.6630, 0.6575
Resistance levels: 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060
Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 0.6885. Stop Loss 0.6925. Take-Profit 0.6865, 0.6840, 0.6815, 0.6750, 0.6700, 0.6630, 0.6575
Buy Stop 0.6925. Stop Loss 0.6885. Take-Profit 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060
