RBNZ Interest Rate decision today is expected remain at the current level of 1.75% as there are very little expectations for a surprise today.
Furthermore, considering the last official statement out of RBNZ which stated: “Headline inflation is likely to decline in coming quarters as the effects of higher fuel and food prices dissipate. The outlook for tradables inflation remains weak. Non-tradables inflation remains moderate but is expected to increase gradually as capacity pressure increases, bringing headline inflation to the midpoint of the target range over the medium term“, we seemed to have run out of reasons for surprises, but then again nothing is set in stone when it comes to Central Banks, so I’ll still prepare for a trade but in all likelihood there won’t be one.
4:00 pm (NY Time) RBNZ Interest Rates Decision Forecast 1.75% Previous 1.75%
DEVIATION: 0.25% (BUY NZD 2.00% / SELL NZD 1.50%)
The Trade Plan
Current forecast from economists surveyed by Bloomberg agree that RBNZ is likely to keep the official rate by unchanged at this meeting; however, in the event that Governor Wheeler surprises the market either by cutting rates or hiking it by 0.25%, we should see an immediate strong volatility in the NZD which is a great opportunity to spike trade NZD.
I’d recommend using the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: NZD/USD.
Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is an opposite.
Definition:
The OCR (Official Cash Rate or RBNZ Interest Rates) influences the price of borrowing money in New Zealand and provides the Reserve Bank with a means of influencing the level of economic activity and inflation. An OCR is a fairly conventional tool by international standards.