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Natural Gas Prices Tumble, Volatility Spikes Post EIA Outlook

BySatendra Singh
Published 02/08/2023, 01:32 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Movements in natural gas prices since Feb. 3, when the futures tested a multi-year low at $2.341 after a sudden jerky move from $2.514, make this level a pivotal point both for the bulls and bears as the EIA’s short-term outlook on Feb. 7 indicates Henry Hub natural gas spot price will average $3.40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2023, down almost 50% from last year and about 30% from our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecast.

Undoubtedly, the short-term weather outlook is still warmer up to mid-February but could take a U-turn and will remain colder till late March due to delayed winters.

Technically speaking, a reversal from the lows tested on Feb.3, keeping the natural gas futures 5% above the lows tested on Feb. 3, looks evident enough to hit $3.6 soon as the same hedge funds which started to push the natural gas futures from the peak at $10.005 on Aug.23, 2022, could keep the prices upward above the pivotal point at $3.5.

Natural Gas Futures 15 Minutes Chart

In the 15-minute chart, natural gas futures are maintaining above 200 DMA after a breakout on Feb. 6, post the EIA short-term outlook, which looks evident enough to continue to form a base at the current levels before the advent of the next bullish move before this weekly closing.

Indeed, volatility could remain higher as wild price swings will be there due to weather uncertainty till the mid of this month. Natural gas futures could see a range-bound trade between $2.777 to $3.858 as NatGasWeather.com reports indicate that weather systems with mild to cool temperatures will impact the West and Northern Plains with highs of 30s to 60s.

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On the other hand, central, southern, and eastern US will be very nice, with highs of 50s to 80s. A colder weather system will track into the central US late in the week with rain, snow, and chilly highs of 10s to 30s, lows of -0s to 30s, then tracking into the East this weekend for a modest bump in national demand. Overall, VERY LOW demand for natural gas through Friday, then MODERATE this weekend.

Disclaimer: The author of this analysis does not have any position in Natural Gas futures. Readers are advised to take any position at their own risk, as Natural Gas is one of the most liquid commodities of the world.

Latest comments

Hehe satendra u r the best of not being accurate all time!
It is a time to relief from fall / little retracement but NOT reversal. Everyone supposed to be agreed.  Your comments please.
Just out of interest, why do you even bother writing it? Are you paid to confuse retail and people who doesn't know anything?
True i am victim of his shit
 you're Singh-in da blues like old Frank Sinatra.
Only way of going right Mr Singh is to write two article per day. one bullish and one bearish. this way  it will have 50% chance of success every day.
guys don't consider this article he is always in the opposite direction
Fundamentally why should NG change direction? Did demand start outpacing supply in some meaningful way? All I get out of this article is technical analysis absent what matters to real buyers of the physical commodity.
This analyst is wrong so often, defies the laws of probability, check his track record for yourself and decide whether honest or deliberately misleading
This guy been wrong almost every time for years, could be just a coincidence if he was wrong a few times, but then statistically he should be right at least a few times, now go check his track record and decide for yourself if he is deliberately misleading
Keep shorting boil or long KOLD until FEB 24 or until they reverse split boil Remember the date FEB 24 and tell me whether NG under $2 or not. 500% truth in March you can jump on BOIL so even if it goes up 5-10% don’t jump on boil. Every small rally in boil or NG to be sold to we can achieve under $2 goal and beat mafia.
You mean buy kold till Feb 24th and change to Boil in March?
Yes
The day you said its gonna go down it went up 5%
Guys - tell your friends family and others. NG mafia playing game and even manipulate weather pattern all mafias. Goal is to reverse split boil under 5. Stay away from boil. PLEASE READ THE WRITING ON THE WALL.
Guys huge draw down expected Thursday and Friday. Stay away from boil. KOLD to go $100. 200% mark my words. Boil under 5 @ 4.5 to be reverse split to 45 and it will go 35 and then it’s time to nibble 25% of your position. You can easily make double at boil 70 by March end and then quit
what happened to this fake analist .so many accounts are zero with his fake view's
Please stop posting any B*llSh*t, need more BearSh*t.
Still time to get out of boil all. Stay away all small retailer and beat these mafia by the plan I laid out.
$2 in sight guys. See this is happening Boil reverse split imminent. Boil to go under 5 by weekend as I have been broadcasting for a week now. Stay away from boil or if at all you want to get in short boil. And wait until Feb 24 when new contract starts, reverse split announcement out 10:1 boil to go 45 and they will take further down to 35 then it’s time to nibbling bot full position even. Right on the money. Why don’t these analysts say black and white like I do
Tum se na ho payega
Beware boil or NG bag holders. This is mafia game and intention is to take NG under $2 and rip all retail traders Beware. Be alert. Don’t give chance to make more mafias.
Spread across NG community. Ride on KOLD or short boil until they reverse split to make fortune. Mafia game period. Every small rally in 5% 10% here to be sold. Spread this word to your friends
Bottom is falling 2.341 in sight today and then flush to $2 by weekend
Boil reverse split announcement imminent this weekend NG to go $2 for sure now. Mafia game Nibbling at 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 As I told every little rally in NG is here to be sold until boil is reverse split. I can not re iterate enough Spread this across NG community to stop making more widows
Told you guys more herds are called in to get slaughtered
his cheating all the people with his bullish analysis
Please can you go for vacation...🙏🤦✈️
pls my request don't post bullish analysis here. the first culprit for ng fall down your analysis only
yup always wrong 🙃
if you think positive, write negative in your statement
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