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Natural Gas: Forecasts For Arctic Blast In U.S. Set To Ensure Winter Peak

By Satendra SinghCommoditiesFeb 06, 2022 01:37AM ET

www.investing.com/analysis/natural-gas-forecasts-for-arctic-blast--in-us-set-to-ensure-winter-peak-200617190

Natural Gas: Forecasts For Arctic Blast In U.S. Set To Ensure Winter Peak

By Satendra Singh | Feb 06, 2022 01:37AM ET

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Last Thursday, despite reporting of a higher withdrawal of -268 Bcf, natural gas futures witnessed a selling spree, increasing deficits of -25 Bcf to 143 Bcf, much larger than the 5-year average of -150 Bcf.

A frigid Arctic blast to the US' interior has been influencing price action since Friday, with lows of -10s to 20s, including 0s and 20s over much of Texas and, which could continue through the weekend.

The overall scenario looked evident enough to keep the demand for natural gas on the higher side during the upcoming week. However, weather data has been trending warmer for the next week. Temperatures are also forecast to be not quite as cold with frosty air returning to the US Feb. 13 -17.

Natural Gas Futures Daily Chart February - March 2014

Natural Gas Futures Daily Chart February - March 2014

Natural gas March contracts' weekly closing level of $4.550 supports the advent of an uptrend, just as NG futures witnessed during February 2014.

Undoubtedly, the uptrend started from the same level on Feb. 11, 2014, and continued to move upward peaking at 6.276 on Feb. 19, 2014. After sustaining price above $4.886 on Feb. 20-21, NG futures tested a new high at $6.491 before sliding downward.

Natural Gas Futures Daily Chart February - March 2022

Natural Gas Futures Daily Chart February - March 2022

Technically speaking, the weekly closing of NG futures on Feb. 4, 2022, at $4.572 points to a repeat of the price-action we saw in February 2014 occurring in February 2022. NG could once again hit a winter peak above $6.5 during this month.

Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart February - March 2022

Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart February - March 2022

Undoubtedly, the higher volatility could continue to follow every directional move but, the overall trend could remain upward due to frosty weather during February 2022. The Arctic front will gradually advance into the East while fizzling in strength, but still impressively cold and with areas of rain and snow. A mild break, however, is forecast for much of the US Tue-Fri of next week.

Disclaimer: The author of this analysis does not have any position in Natural Gas futures. Readers are advised to take any position at their own risk; as Natural Gas is one of the most liquid commodities of the world.

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Comments (4)

Phong Nguyen Feb 07, 2022 8:08AM ET

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“…NG could once again hit a winter peak above $6.5 during this month…” Another reckless guess from Sir Singh !

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RAM Kumar Feb 06, 2022 9:55AM ET

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worst Analysis Every Time This man Article Opposite Direction My Suggestion Investing.com Kindly Ban This Person Article.

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Sistla Durga Devi Feb 06, 2022 9:55AM ET

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No need to comment unnecessarily. What he says is always right. We should understand.

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donald terry Feb 06, 2022 9:42AM ET

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That was an actually comical article!

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Trading Market Feb 06, 2022 8:45AM ET

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Are you bullish or bearish on NG?

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