Natural gas continues to decline under the weight of short-term profit-taking. A rally from an 18- to 23-handle in the span of nine trading days made this outcome expected. The resulting decline has 'tested' the 22-22.25 support zone on contracting volume. Contracting volume suggests waning downside force and a decline without conviction. If previous resistance acts as support as volume contracts, it favors continuation of the rally.
A close below 22 opens the door to a retest of 20.75-21. A close above 23.25 accelerates the uptrend to the next layer of resistance at 24. 
The oil to natural gas ratio, generally down since April 2012, reflects a preference for natural gas. While this preference is largely a global economic deceleration/deterioration play, it's also weather-related. A cooler than normal heating season (fall/winter) surprised not only long-term forecasting models but also the polar bears 'living on borrowed time' in 2013/2014.
The invisible hand's extreme concentration and bull phase increases the probability of cooler than normal temperatures (higher NG demand) in 2014/2015. This possibility, easily part of a longer-term trend/cycle that supersedes human attention spans, means long-term forecasting models and political agendas could be scheduled for some 'retooling'. Polar bears which have survived longer than homo sapiens (150,000 to five million years compared to humans around 30,000 years) may yet have the last laugh. 