Mr. Big In SLV Is At Work In GLD

This has been one of the worst stretches for gold and silver price-wise in quite some time, no secret there. I have to go back to when silver was in single digits to find a comparable period. The question on precious metals investors’ minds is whether this bad stretch is going to continue much longer. Are the past few months setting the stage for a pronounced rebound in prices or has the tide changed for the worse for an extended period of time?

One of the key considerations in gold has been the redemption of more than 10 million ounces (over $15 billion) since year end from the world’s largest gold Exchange Traded Fund, GLD. That is a major amount of gold, and represents around 25% of the entire holdings in GLD (at year end). The gold ETF holds the largest privately held stockpiles of the metal. Consequently it has a pronounced influence on gold prices.

It is widely reported that the 10 million ounces of gold that came out of the GLD have been bought by India or China, even though substantiating data is lacking. Let’s only consider the facts that we know. The 10 million gold ounces that came out of the GLD equals roughly 100 million shares of GLD (one-tenth ounce per share). The 10 million ounces that are no longer in the GLD still exist and, therefore, must be owned by someone. We know that the reason the shares were liquidated in GLD was due to the rotten price performance that weighs on metals investors’ minds. This tends to eliminate China as the big buyer; as such buying would cause gold prices to rise, not fall. The shares were sold and metal redeemed because the price went down, largely a self-reinforcing spiral.

The same methodology I’ve previously attributed to a potential Mr. Big in SLV is at work in GLD. If one (or 2 or 3) big buyers in GLD had merely purchased the 100 million shares that were sold in GLD, that would have quickly pushed the big buyer(s) over the 5% SEC reporting threshold thereby revealing their identity. But by having the gold redeemed out of the trust and the metal being purchased (instead of shares), stock reporting requirements are evaded.

From late November, the commercials as a whole, bought more than 160,000 net COMEX gold contracts on declining prices, the equivalent of 16 million ounces. When you include what came out of the ETFs and exchange warehouses it adds an additional 15 million ounces. Together that totals 30 million ounces ($45 billion). Options and over-the-counter derivatives transactions could double that amount. This likely brings the total of their purchases to 50 million ounces ($75 billion). This sound like a huge number, but it’s quite manageable for these big banks and it represents a small fraction of the total derivatives market. The scope of their purchases is enormous, and the bullish implications are staggering.