No great surprises yesterday. I’m not expecting much today either. There seems to be, following the rabid attention to selling dollars, a fear of whispers, “Oi, did you see him try and buy dollars?” Snigger, snigger. Clearly, we have seen some impressive gains in EUR/USD from just before the start of this year and I do admit that I hadn’t expected such a rally. It just wasn’t needed, but that’s how the market cookie crumbles. Frankly, looking at the daily structure there is certainly no impulsive development. Indeed, I think we may well see one more rally in EUR/USD before the dollar resumes its rally that started in May 2014.
USD/CHF is touch and go. Until it breaks above 0.9765 there remains a mild risk of a new low. I can’t see it being that deep. USD/JPY is already embarking on attempting to forge ahead on the upside. However, it’s unlikely to be particularly forceful and should slump again, but not in an aggressive way. More likely it could drift into a consolidation for a while. This could still see EUR/JPY edging higher.
The Aussie. Oh, it drifts and looks around without much care in the world. Frankly, I see that still happening but perhaps when the EUR/USD bubble bursts perhaps it can get back on the downside.