“Buying the dip” (BTFD) only works if a stock that is in a downtrend actually reverses to a rally. Otherwise, the strategy has a different name — “buying a loser.”
We focused our testing specifically on the trigger that identifies a stock in a down channel and when the selling pressure has eased and the stock may be ready for a bounce. In other words, we focused less on a simplistic mantra of “buy the dip,” and more on the empirical view of “when the dip might reverse.”
After rigorous testing over multiple time periods and over tens of thousands of back-tests, today we demonstrate the technical conditions that have provided a strong short-term bullish momentum trigger for Monster Beverage Corporation (NASDAQ:MNST) after an abrupt stock decline as well as, broadly speaking, the Nasdaq 100 index constituents over the five year period from 2014-2019.
Logic
It doesn’t matter if MNST is in a downtrend right now. What matters is what has happened historically when that time comes, because it will come again.
Buy the Dip Trigger: The Option Trade with Technical Analysis and Moving Averages in Monster Beverage Corporation.
We will examine the outcome of going long an out-of-the-money (strike price is set to the 40 delta) call option, in options that are the closest to 30-days from expiration (using calendar days). But we follow three rules:
* Never Trade Earnings
Let’s not worry about earnings. Here it is, first, we enter the long call.
Use a technical trigger to start the trade, if and only if these specific items are met.
To put a picture to the words, here is an example for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) from February of 2018, below, where the stock was in a down trend, then it crossed above the two trigger requirements, and a stock rally ensued.
* Finally, we set a very specific type of limit:
* Use a 50% limit and a 50% stop.
At the end of each day, the back-tester checks to see if the 30-day long call is either up or down 50%. If it is, it closes the position.
RESULTS
Here are the results for the 30-day long call over the last two-years in Monster Beverage Corporation.
| MNST: Long 40 Delta Call | % Wins: | 100% | Wins: 4 | Losses: 0 | % Return: | 187.5% |
The mechanics of the TradeMachine are that it uses end of day prices for every back-test entry and exit (every trigger).
Setting Expectations
While this strategy had an overall return of 187.5%, the trade details keep us in bounds with expectations:
➡ The average percent return per trade was 50.46% for each 30-day period.
Rigor to the Option Backtester and Backtesting
We compared this technical analysis trigger on the constituents of the Nasdaq 100 versus the results from the baseline. The baseline is simply owning calls and rolling them every 30-days with the same stop and limit as introduced above (50%). Here’s what we found:
* Over the one-year period ending June 2019, the average trade return was 23% per 30-day period using the “buy the dip” technical trigger compared to just 6% using rolling calls with no technical structure.
* Over the 2-years ending June 2019, the average trade return was 24% per 30-day period using the “buy the dip” technical trigger compared to just 5% using rolling calls with no technical structure.
* Over the 3-years ending June 2019, the average trade return was 16% per 30-day period using the “buy the dip” technical trigger compared to just 7% for the baseline.
Back-testing the “Buy the Dip” Trigger: More Time Periods in Monster Beverage Corporation.
Now we can look at just the last year as well:
| MNST: Long 40 Delta Call | % Wins: | 100% | Wins: 3 | Losses: 0 | % Return: | 165.1% |
We’re now looking at 165.1% returns, on 3 winning trades and 0 losing trades.
➡ The average percent return over the last year per trade was 48.2%.