Gold is the only asset in the precious metals realm running somewhat regular, cyclically speaking. Its intermediate cycle topped 5-weeks ago, and prices should head lower over the next 3-5 weeks into a standard 6-month cycle low. Miners and silver are behaving abnormally, and their moves higher are yet to be confirmed by gold, a non-confirmation.
The US dollar is key to long-term metal prices, and it needs to strengthen significantly from here or risk a major breakdown.
-US dollar weekly- The dollar made a weekly bullish engulfing pattern; prices have an excellent opportunity to rally from here. My work still supports dollar prices breaking higher from this year-long consolidation and above the 100 level to approximately 107-110.
-GOLD WEEKLY- The intermediate gold cycle topped 5-weeks ago and is poised to make a spring low sometime in May.
-GOLD DAILY- A close below the neckline will trigger a drop to $1,130 by May.
-SILVER- Prices have been exceptionally strong, but gold is not confirming the recent move higher.
-GOLD-SILVER Ratio- The gold/silver ratio is testing the lower aspect of a multi-year pattern. A solid breakdown below that trendline will be bullish for precious metals. Something I'll be watching over the next several weeks. IF the ratio turns back higher, I have a latent target of between 87 and 90 in Q4 of this year.
-HUI WEEKLY- The HUI made a black weekly Doji candle which is highly correlated with trend reversals.
-GDX- The triangle target was reached, almost exactly but I won't feel comfortable calling $23.06 the intermediate cycle top until there have been at least two lower closes below the 10-day moving average.
Summary
Metals and miners are deep in their intermediate cycles and prices should drop to a spring low sometime in May. The price structure out of that May low will determine if the 8-year Major cycle bottomed or if that bottom will arrive late in 2016 as our work suggests; the US dollar is key to everything.