Last quarter toy maker Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) posted a loss of 3c per share while Wall Street analysts were looking for a gain of 7c per share. The earnings report from April seemed to signal that Barbies were losing their legs and Matchbox cars were running out of gas. Mattel and rival Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS) both missed their revenue expectations, while Mattel also missed the Street’s earnings consensus by a hefty 12c per share.
Last quarter contributing analysts on crowdsourced forward looking financial estimates platform Estimize.com correctly predicted the miss on the bottom line and came within one 10th of a percent in forecasting revenue. On Thursday the Estimize community is forecasting that for a second straight quarter Mattel will sell fewer toys than Wall Street anticipates.
Mattel is set to report FQ2 2014 earnings before the market opens on Thursday, July 17th. This quarter contributing analysts on Estimize.com have come to a consensus earnings expectation of 17c EPS and $1.154B in revenue compared to a consensus of 19c EPS and $1.164B from Wall Street. Over the previous 6 quarters Estimize.com has been more accurate than Wall Street in forecasting Mattel’s earnings per share twice and revenue 4 times.
Estimize.com ranks and allows the sorting of analysts by accuracy, the analyst with the lowest error rate on Mattel with at least 2 estimates scored is an information technology professional who goes by the username thomson. Over 2 previously scored estimates thomson has averaged an error rate of 2.2%. Estimize is completely open and free for anyone to contribute, and the base of contributing analysts on the platform includes hedge fund analysts, asset managers, independent research shops, non professional investors, and students.
The Estimize consensus was more accurate than the Wall Street consensus 65% of the time last quarter on the coverage of nearly 1000 stocks. A combination of algorithms ensures that the data is not only clean and free from people attempting to game the system, but also weighs past performance and many other factors to gauge future accuracy.
In April Mattel’s earnings miss shocked investors as the results came in well below the single lowest estimate collected from either Wall Street or the Estimize community. The toy makers struggled to meet their revenue targets last quarter while new online games and entertainment apps companies like recently IPO’ed King Digital Entertainment (KING) saw soaring sales growth (although King missed its Wall Street revenue consensus too). Some of the app companies like King have been growing their revenue in the triple digits on a year over year basis while Mattel has seen sales reductions of 5% or more in the previous 2 consecutive quarters.
Contributing analysts on the Estimize.com platform are forecasting that Mattel will report earnings 2c per share (11%) behind Wall Street’s EPS forecast and miss by $10 million (1%) on revenue. The Estimize community also expects earnings to fall 4c per share from 21c in FQ2 of last year to 17c this quarter. The earnings outlook for next quarter doesn’t look much better either, analysts who have already submitted estimates for next quarter have a current EPS consensus expectation that is 6c below the forecast from Wall Street.
Head over to Estimize.com/calendar to follow the most comprehensive earnings season calendar on the web featuring consensus estimates from Wall Street and the Estimize community. Register your own Estimize account today and add to the consensus to track your improvement as an analyst and see how your estimates stack up to Wall Street and the pros.