Market movers today
As tensions in the Russia/Ukraine conflict are easing, economic data will likely get some more attention again. Service PMIs will be released in most countries today. In the euro area, Spain and Italy will be in focus as flash estimates have already been released for Germany and France. We look for a slight decline in both Spain and Italy. The UK services PMI is still at a high level and expected to only show a small decline from 58.3 to 58.0.
In the US, the ISM non-manufacturing is expected to fall slightly from 54.0 to 53.4. Keep an eye on the employment index which is a good indicator of labour market developments in the service sector where 80% of the jobs are. Notably ADP employment is also released today: this has generally proven a more stable indicator than the official non-farm payrolls (due this Friday) and hence may be a better indicator of the true state of the labour market. Consensus looks for some moderation from 175k in January to 158k in February. Finally, Fed publishes the Beige Book tonight.
Swedish services PMI and industrial production in focus.
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