Market Overview

This is a big week for the global capital markets. It is likely to prove to be the most significant week of not only the first half of the year, but perhaps even the entire year. There are four major...

Valid until the market close on June 30, 2014The S&P 500 closed May with a monthly gain of 2.10%. All three S&P 500 MAs and all five the Ivy Portfolio ETF MAs are signaling "Invested".The...

Today I’m offering some excerpts from Paul Cootner’s introduction to Part I of the book, which includes a paper entitled “Stock-Market ‘Patterns’ and Financial Analysis:...

One of the things that annoys me about the concept of the equity premium is that it is an academic creation that does not grasp the structures of the markets. Send the academics to be bond and equity...

Are We Dealing with a Full Set of Facts or Cherry Picking?In Europe's Secret Success, Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman stated as fact: I’ll be spending the next couple of days at a forum sponsored by...

Do you have an opinion about stocks or bonds or foreign exchange? If so, it is easy to find a market message that will support (or contradict) your viewpoint. The "message" of the market has rarely...

Summary: The Sentier Research monthly median household income data series is now available for April. The nominal median household income was down $84 month-over-month and up only $1,420...

One of the most important scholarly books ever published about the financial markets was The Random Character of Stock Market Prices, edited by Paul H. Cootner (M.I.T. Press, 1964). I recently got...

Over the past week the market rose, but all of our core indicators fell slightly. None of them changed enough to change portfolio allocations. Below is a chart of the current category readings.

The Personal Income and Outlays report for April was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.The latest Headline PCE price index year-over-year (YoY) rate of 1.62% is a relatively...

This Great Graphic was tweeted by Emerging Market Equity. The charts come from the Institute of International Finance and also draws on data from EPFR, which tracks investment flows.  What we are...

The world stock indices rose on Thursday. Investors ignored the weak U.S. GDP data for the first quarter in the second reading (-1%), which were much worse than expected (-0.5%). They believe that it...

European markets are trading lower on the final day of the week. We also had the economic data this morning for Spain which showed that inflation rate has fallen further in the country during the...

Turkish Prime Minister RecepTayyip Erdogan’s criticism of the Central Bank of Turkey, to which I had referred to in my last post, set the economic theme for the week. Not only the PM carried on...