Market Overview

1. Temporal Inconsistencies at the Fed: The Fed's decision to delay the beginning of the normalization of monetary policy undermines confidence in when lift-off will actually take place. It is clear...

I went to the doctor Friday morning. What a problem we have. “How’s the pain? Do you want some pills for that?” he asked. “No thanks, doc. Let’s just figure out...

Of all the ways to make money in the financial markets, being a short seller is one of the toughest. The short seller is fighting the upward bias of the equity markets as well as the wrath of...

Markets and the economy do not need to go in the same direction. Business continues to optimize based on conditions they are seeing. Since the Great Recession, business has done a much better job of...

We believe that although a full or partial retest of recent lows may occur, the correction’s worst is over, and if the past is a guide, U.S. stocks will appreciate over the next six-month...

We view the Fed’s inaction as positive for stocks. The only negative that we could see as a result of yesterday’s announcement is that the ongoing concern about a rate increase will dog...

The news in Brazil is particularly bad, even against a backdrop of generalized emerging-market weakness. Economic and psychological indicators are at decades-long lows. Nevertheless, with a major...

The commander must decide how he will fight the battle before it begins. He must then decide who he will use the military effort at his disposal to force the battle to swing the way he wishes it to...

The negative impact of China’s slowdown continued this past week as the OECD lowered its global growth forecast: “Global growth prospects have weakened slightly and the outlook is clouded...

The FOMC’s failure to deliver on its first step towards normalization of monetary policy surprised many market participants and other observers. Despite improving GDP growth prospects and...

Not only did the Fed vote to keep interest rates stable yesterday, it did so overwhelmingly — with just as many members apparently favoring lower rates as higher. Now all the people who bought...

Every dictator knows that a continuous state of emergency is the best means to justify tyrannical policies. The trick is to keep the fictitious emergency from breeding so much paranoia that routine...

The decision by the Fed to delay rate hikes puts pressure on the Riksbank. The krona has strengthened markedly over the past month. Our base case is another 10bp rate cut combined with an extended...

Market movers ahead We expect Norges Bank to cut its key policy rate by 25bp at its meeting on Thursday. We look for a slight rise in the Chinese Caixin Flash PMI manufacturing to 47.5 from 47.1 next...