Market Overview

Dollar jumped broadly overnight as the modestly hawkish FOMC minutes spurred hope of rate hike in June. Indeed, fed fund futures are now pricing in 34% chance of a June hike, sharply higher than 4% at...

Markets are playing catch up to communications from the US Federal Reserve as they appear to have dramatically under-priced the likelihood of a rate rise over the coming months. The release of the Fed...

The minutes from the FOMC meeting held in April revealed that the FOMC is more divided than we previously thought. In general, the FOMC members agreed that the labour market continues to strengthen,...

Fed's Fischer (voter, neutral) and Dudley (voter, dovish) are set to speak today. Following the surprisingly hawkish FOMC minutes from the April meeting released yesterday and the recent re-pricing of...

A rebound in British retail sales is expected in today's update for April However CBI data implies that a downside surprise may be lurking in retail US jobless claims are on track to slide for the...

We felt strongly that the FOMC minutes would be more hawkish than the statement that followed the meeting, and we were not disappointed. However, our caveat remains: the minutes dilute the signal that...

Like our resident market P.I. John Del Vecchio, Kyle Bass is one of those hedge fund managers who profited in the last crash when he bought credit default swaps to short the housing market.He’s...

The markets were trading higher until the release of the FOMC minutes from the last meeting. SPX traded up to $2061 before the release, plummeted to $2034 after the release and then recovered to close...

This has been a very tense week. The persistent tug-of-war between good (the bears) and evil (the bulls) has been worse than ever, with neither side gaining a toehold. Today, however, helped the...

Today we get another glimpse into the behind-the-scenes machinations of the “data dependent” Federal Open Market Committee with the release of the minutes from the April 26-27...

The bulls and bears are in stalemate. Whenever the S&P 500 index starts to approach recent highs, the bears pull it back. For example, look at the SPX chart for April 20th. Intraday, SPX hit the...

The ridiculous up/down/up/down/up/down we’ve been living with in this market for, what, the past 18 months or so has been maddening. Will it end any time soon? I suppose it’s possible, but...

Economic growth has been winding lower lately and the deceleration trend is on track to continue in April, based on The Capital Spectator’s analysis of the three-month average of the Chicago...

EUR/NOK. We expect EUR/NOK to trade around current levels in the coming month with the very short-term risks skewed to the upside. We maintain the view that fundamentals limit the medium-term downside...