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At the Fed, the debate is over normalization of the balance sheet. The Fed has already finished tapering. The ECB is still addicted to a balance sheet build-up.In contrast, the ECB is still addicted...
Variant Perception notes China Broad Credit Growth Slows to Zero. The side effect is a huge amount of collateral damage. The recent tightening of credit we have seen in China is primarily aimed at...
Note: This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment for June.Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee,...
Every week we post an update on new unemployment claims shortly after the BLS report is made available. Our focus is the four-week moving average of this rather volatile indicator. The financial press...
Last week's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 144.0, up 0.9 from previous reports. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is...
By accepting life's limits and inevitabilities and working with them rather than fighting them, we become free.You just know there are certain things in life which are going to happen. For example,...
Gold Today –New York closed yesterday at $1,224.70.London opened at $1,221.65 today. Overall the dollar was weaker against global currencies, early today. Before London’s opening: - The...
Summer Equity Market Bounce in US dollar – Multi-week low in gold The price pattern of both gold and the miners continues to mimic that of the base during the 8-year cycle low in...
There is a great deal of "hype" regarding aggressive market timing, with timing services often advertising overinflated gains attained by trading both bullish (long) positions and bearish (short)...
On June 26, the 10-year generic German yield closed at 24.5 basis points. It finished last week a little over 57 basis points. The similar Italian yield has risen 45 basis points to 2.05%. The...
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) The US confirmed North Korea's claims that it tested an intercontinental ballistic missile. The Pakistani rupee was devalued, prompting a new central bank governor to...
DOW – 158 = 21,320SPX – 22 = 2409NASDAQ – 61 = 6089RUT – 19 = 140010 Y + .04 = 2.37OIL + .16 = 45.29GOLD – 1.70 = 1226.00BITCOIN +0.08% = 2621.33 USDETHEREUM –...
Another Volatile Week With Little Progress Approaching A “Bond Buying” Opportunity Interesting Tidbits Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager More Volatility – Still No...
There are two important areas of the market that have historically been good leading indicators of the strength, or weakness, of the markets and the economy. Oil and retail.Currently, both areas are...
The US employment data underscores the resilience of the US economy. Given the Fed's commitment to the Phillip's Curve, the robust jobs growth is sufficient to keep the faith that inflation will rise...