Market Outlook: USD/JPY Remains Well Supported

EUR/USD

The euro is probing above 1.38 barrier, following several attempts to break higher that formed hourly bullish pennant. Positive near-term studies are supportive for further advance, with clearance of strong 1.38 hurdle, also Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3965/1.3704 descend and daily Kijun-sen line, seen as a trigger for fresh recovery towards 1.3835/45, lower tops / 50% retracement and 1.3756, bull trendline off 1.3965, with key near-term resistance at 1.3874, 24 Mar peak, expected to come in focus on a break. Alternatively, rejection at 1.38 zone would signal further congestion, while extension below higher platform at 1.3765, also mid-point of 1.3704/1.3814 upleg, would bring bears back in play.

Resistance: 1.3845; 1.3874; 1.3900; 1.3946

Support: 1.3877; 1.3765; 1.3745; 1.3700



EUR/JPY

The pair remains well supported and continues to trend higher, with fresh bulls above psychological 143 barrier, confirming formation of higher base at 140 zone and approaching key near-term resistance at 143.78, 07 Mar peak. Full retracement of 143.78/139.95 correction is required to spark fresh extension of larger uptrend from 136.21, 04 Feb low and open multi-year peaks at 145.15 and 145.67, posted in Dec 2013 and Jan 2014. Positive near-term technicals support further advance, with hesitation on approach to 143.78 seen on overbought studies.

Resistance: 143.46; 143.78; 144.00; 145.00

Support: 143.00; 142.58; 142.00; 141.77



GBP/USD

Cable enters consolidative phase after fresh bulls peaked at 1.6685, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.6821/1.6464 descend. Strong support and breakpoint at 1.6600, so far stays intact, as the pullback was contained by daily cloud top at 1.6615 and subsequent bounce is under way. With near-term studies gaining traction, focus remains at 1.6685 peak, clearance of which and trendline resistance at 1.6730, to open next pivot at 1.6716, 13 Mar peak and signal eventual return to key barriers at 1.6784, 07 Mar high and 1.6821, 17 Feb 2014 high. Only loss of 1.66 handle would delay immediate bulls and risk stronger pullback.

Resistance: 1.6685; 1.6700; 1.6716; 1.6730

Support: 1.6615; 1.6600; 1.6574; 1.6548



USD/JPY

The pair remains supported and eventually broke above key near-term barrier at 103.75, 07 Mar peak, fully retracing 103.75/101.19 descend. Formation of Three White Soldiers pattern on a daily chart suggests further upside, with break above psychological 104.00 barrier, expected to open 104.32, Fibonacci 76.4% of 105.43/100.74 descend and expose upper targets at 105 zone. However, bulls may be delayed by consolidative / corrective action, as near-term studies are overbought. Psychological 103 support, also 38.2% retracement of 101.71/103.92 upleg and higher platform at 102.80, also 50% retracement, are seen as ideal reversal points to keep near-term bulls intact.

Resistance: 104.00; 104.32; 104.83; 105.00

Support: 103.59; 103.42; 103.00; 102.80



AUD/USD

The pair trades in extended consolidative phase off 0.9300 barrier, following repeated upside rejection. Near-term price action is entrenched within 0.9220/0.9300 range, with studies losing traction. This may signal deeper pullback, as hourly technicals are negative and 4-hour bearish momentum is building up. Break below initial 0.9220 support will be seen as initial signal, while loss of psychological 0.92 handle and 0.9184, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8994/0.9302 upleg, is required to confirm of near-term double-top pattern and expose 0.9148, 50% retracement / bull-trendline off 0.8923 low and previous congestion tops at 0.9135 zone, reinforced by 200SMA, where stronger pullback should be ideally contained. Overall bullish tone keeps the upside favored in the short-term

Resistance: 0.9302; 0.9314; 0.9336; 0.9400

Support: 0.9220; 0.9200; 0.9184; 0.9148



AUD/NZD


Fresh strength off 1.0639 triple-bottom, where the price found good support and built near-term base, eventually broke above initial 1.0737 barrier and completed 1.0737/1.0639 corrective phase. Immediate target and pivotal barrier at 1.0755, 07 Mar peak / bear-trendline off 1.0942 peak / daily cloud top, comes under pressure, with break here to complete daily cup-and –holder pattern and signal further upside. Next targets lay at 1.0786, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0942/1.0534 and psychological 1.0800 barrier. Positive near-term technicals support further advance, with hesitation ahead of 1.0755 barrier seen on overbought hourly studies. Corrective dips should be ideally contained above previous congestion tops at 1.0700.

Resistance: 1.0710; 1.0737; 1.0755; 1.0775

Support: 1.0700; 1.0666; 1.0639; 1.0615



XAU/USD

Spot Gold trades in extended consolidative phase off fresh low at 1277, signaling possible basing attempt. However, overall negative tone keeps the downside favored, as brief corrective attempts were capped by descending 10SMA at 1287. Break here is required to signal recovery, with notion being supported by oversold 4-hour conditions. Extension higher to open strong 1300 zone barrier, 200SMA / psychological resistance, above which stronger recovery action could be anticipated. Otherwise, completion of near-term consolidation and fresh extension of larger downtrend off 1392 peak, would be likely near-term scenario. Break below 1277 to open 1272, 100SMA and 1262, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1182/1392, also daily Ichimoku cloud base.

Resistance: 1287; 1296; 1300; 1306

Support: 1277; 1272; 1262; 1252