Market Outlook: USD/JPY Near-Term Outlook Remains Negative

EUR/USD

The euro remains well supported and continues to trend higher, with resumption of one-week uptrend from 1.3482, triggered on completion of bull-flag on4-hour chart. Break above initial barrier at 1.3682, cracked psychological 1.3700 level and opens 1.3715/38, 27/24 Jan peaks / daily cloud top, as well as Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3892/1.3475 descend at 1.3733. Sustained break and weekly close above here is required to signal an end of corrective phase from 1.3892 and shift focus towards strong 1.38 resistance zone and spike high of 27 Dec 2013 at 1.3892. Near-term technicals are positive and support further gains, however, overbought hourly studies suggest consolidative action in the near-term. First support lies at 1.3670, ahead of 1.3650, previous high / 55SMA and 1.3630, midpoint of entire recovery rally from 1.3561.

Resistance: 1.3715; 1.3738; 1.3800; 1.3831

Support: 1.3670; 1.3650; 1.3630; 1.3600

EUR/USD Hour Chart" title="EUR/USD Hour Chart" width="800" height="400">


EUR/JPY

Near-term price action is congested within 138.80/140.00 range, consolidating gains off 136.21 that peaked at 140.29. The pair so far lacks momentum for clear break above bear-trendline drawn off 145.67 peak, with near-term studies holding neutral tone. Larger picture tone is negative that keeps the downside at risk, while the price stays capped below pivotal resistance at 140.29, 11 Feb high. Break above near-term congestion is required to improve the structure and resume recovery rally towards next significant barriers at 141.00 and 141.23, 29 Jan lower top. Alternatively, slide below range floor at 138.80, would confirm lower top formation and turn near-term focus lower.

Resistance: 139.80; 140.05; 140.29; 141.00

Support: 138.80; 138.25; 138.00; 137.77
EUR/JPY Hour Chart" title="EUR/JPY Hour Chart" width="800" height="400">


GBP/USD

The pair continues to trend higher and eventually completed 1.6668/1.6250 corrective phase, posting marginally higher high at 1.6671. Strong bullish tone on a daily chart signals resumption of larger uptrend from 1.4812, 2013 annual low, towards initial targets at 1.6700, round figure resistance and 1.6737/45, Apr/May 2011 peaks. However, extremely overbought 4-hour studies see suggest consolidative/corrective action ahead of fresh push higher. Immediate support lies at 1.6600, with stronger dips to be contained at 1.6500, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the rally from 1.6250.

Resistance: 1.6671; 1.6700; 1.6737; 1.6745

Support: 1.6600; 1.6570; 1.6534; 1.6500
GBP/USD Hour Chart" title="GBP/USD Hour Chart" width="800" height="400">


USD/JPY

The pair’s near-term outlook remains negative, as the price lost 102.00/101.75 handles, resuming reversal off 102.69, 11 Feb recovery rejection. With fresh low being posted at 101.55, near-term focus moves towards psychological 101.00 support and key near-term point at 100.74 base. Break here to signal resumption of larger downtrend from 105.43, 02 Jan annual peak, towards next significant support at 100 zone, round-figure support / 200SMA and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 96.55/105.43 rally. Negative tone prevails on all timeframes and supports the notion. Bears are expected to take a break for corrective rallies, with 102 barrier offering initial resistance and any extension higher to be capped under 102.39, session high and lower top. Only break here would delay bears and re-open key near-term barrier at 102.69.

Resistance: 102.00; 102.39; 102.69; 102.92

Support: 101.55; 101.20; 101.00; 99.56



AUD/USD

The pair trades in corrective mode off 0.8926, yesterday’s low, maintaining overall positive tone, as hourly studies improved on a rally to 0.9024 so far, retracing over 61.8% of 0.9066/0.8926 fall. While strong support at 0.89 zone, reinforced by daily 55SMA holds, more focus is seen towards the upside. Regains of key near-term hurdle at 0.9066, is required to open another significant barrier at 0.9084, 13 Jan peak, to complete daily cup and holder reversal pattern and confirm bottom at 0.8658. Initial support lies at 0.8955, daily cloud base, ahead of 0.8926 low, also daily Tenkan-sen line, loss of which would soften near-term tone and risk return to 0.89 base.

Resistance: 0.9033; 0.9066; 0.9084; 0.9100

Support: 0.8955; 0.8926; 0.8900; 0.8870
AUD/USD Hour Chart" title="AUD/USD Hour Chart" width="800" height="400">


AUD/NZD


Near-term price action remains under pressure, as extension of bear-leg from 1.0868lower top, posted new low at 1.0731, just ahead of midpoint of 1.0488/1.0942 rally at 1.0715 and psychological 1.0700 support. With corrective attempts being capped under 1.0800 hurdle, also bear-trendline off 1.0942 peak, more downside risk is seen ahead, as near-term technicals are negative. Violation of 1.0731 handle to open way for fresh bears through 1.0700, towards next support at 1.0661, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. Only clear break above 1.0668, 12 Feb lower top, would avert downside risk and signal higher low formation.

Resistance: 1.0790; 1.0800; 1.0820; 1.0855

Support: 1.0731; 1.0715; 1.0700; 1.0661
AUD/NZD Hour Chart" title="AUD/NZD Hour Chart" width="800" height="400">


XAU/USD

Spot Gold remains well supported, with fresh bullish extension meeting initial targets at 1300 and 1307, psychological barrier and 50% retracement of 1433/1182 descend, reinforced by 200SMA. Bulls remain firmly in play and favor further upside, with next targets at 1319, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 1361/1182 and 1325, 07 Nov 2013 peak. However, corrective action should be anticipated, as near-term studies are overbought. Dips would face supports at 1300 and previous peaks at 1296/92, with 1290, 38.2% retracement of 1256/1310 upleg seen as ideal reversal point. Weekly close above 1300 handle, will be seen as supportive factor.

Resistance: 1310; 1319; 1325; 1329

Support: 1300; 1296; 1292; 1289
XAU/USD Hour Chart" title="XAU/USD Hour Chart" width="800" height="400">