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Market Outlook: EUR/JPY Maintains Near-Term Sentiment

Published 04/08/2014, 04:28 AM
Updated 02/21/2017, 08:25 AM
EUR/USD
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GBP/USD
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USD/JPY
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AUD/USD
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EUR/JPY
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AUD/NZD
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XAU/USD
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EUR/USD

The euro trades in near-term corrective mode off fresh low at 1.3671, posted on 04 Apr, with price action consolidating at fresh recovery high at 1.3747, also 50% retracement of 1.3819/1.3671 downleg and daily Tenkan-sen line. Improved hourly technicals keep the upside favored in the near-term, with immediate targets at 1.3662/70, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement / lower platform, expected to come in focus on a break higher. Double bullish MA’s crossover, along with 38.2% retracement of 1.3671/1.3747 upleg at 1.3720, offers immediate support, ahead of psychological / previous 28 Mar low at 1.3700, zone required to keep the downside protected.

However, weak 4-structure see the upside attempts limited, while the price holds below breakpoints at 1.3819/28, 02 Apr lower top / bear-channel resistance, with risk of lower top formation and fresh leg lower, being in play. Only sustained break above the latter barriers would neutralize bears and signal base formation for stronger recovery towards 1.3853, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.3965/1.3671 and 24 Mar lower top at 1.3874. Bearish daily studies favor further channeling lower, with 1.3642, 27 Feb higher low and 1.3600, round-figure support, remaining in near-term focus.

Resistance: 1.3747; 1.3770; 1.3805; 1.3819

Support: 1.3720; 1.3700; 1.3671; 1.3642

EUR/USD Hour Chart


EUR/JPY

The pair maintains negative near-term sentiment, with extension of pullback from 143.46, 02 Apr peak, finding temporary support at 141.10, just ahead of 141.00, psychological support, reinforced by daily Ichimoku cloud top. Studies on lower timeframes are negative and keep the downside risk in play, as near-term corrective attempt was capped at 141.88 by descending hourly 55SMA. Fresh bears below 141 handle to open 140.65, trendline support and strong 140.40, previous base, ahead of key level at 139.95, 28 Mar low. Correction peak at 141.88 offers initial resistance, ahead of psychological 142.00 barrier, also Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 143.46/141.10 descend, reinforced by 4-hour 10/55SMA’s bear-cross and loser platform at 142.30, also 50% retracement. Only break above lower platform at 142.60 would neutralize near-term bears.

Resistance: 141.88; 142.00; 142.30; 142.56

Support: 141.00; 140.80; 140.65; 140.40

EUR/JPY Hour Chart

GBP/USD

Cable returns to strength and averts immediate downside risk, as corrective bounce off fresh low at 1.6548 broke above strong 1.6600/20 barriers, previous strong supports. Extension above 1.6631, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.6683/1.6548 downleg, confirms positive near-term stance, however, risk of lower top formation would remain in play while the price holds below 1.6660 lower platform. Hourly studies are entering overbought zone, while 4-hour indicators are heading north but still below their midline that keeps the downside risk in play. Extension through 1.6660 and pivotal 1.6683, 31 Mar peak is required to confirm larger picture bulls emerging from neutral mode and allow for further upside towards 1.6716, bear-channel resistance. Hourly higher base at 1.6600, offers initial support, with potential break lower expected to weaken near-term structure and risk return to 1.6564 higher base and key near-term support at 1.6548.

Resistance: 1.6660; 1.6685; 1.6700; 1.6716

Support: 1.6620; 1.6600; 1.6564; 1.6548

GBP/USD Hour Chart

USD/JPY

The pair resumes the downtrend from 104.11 peak, after ending brief consolidation above psychological 103 level. Fresh bears look for test of strong 102.65 support, 50% retracement of 101.19/104.11 ascend / previous consolidation tops, below which to confirm near-term top. Negative studies of the lower timeframes support the notion, with extension below very strong 102 support zone, daily Ichimoku cloud base and main bull-trendline off 100.74 low, expected to neutralize larger picture bulls. Initial barrier lies at 103, now acting as resistance, ahead of lower top / Fibonacci 38.2% of 104.11/102.73 descend, where rallies should be ideally capped.

Resistance: 103.00; 102.26; 103.42; 103.58

Support: 102.65; 102.30; 102.00; 101.71

USD/JPY Hour Chart

AUD/USD

The pair regained strength and attempts again above strong 0.9300 resistance zone, after corrective pullback from last Friday’s fresh high at 0.9306 was contained at 0.9253, mid-point of the upleg from 0.9204 higher base. Near-term technicals are positive and favor eventual break above congestion tops at 0.9300, to signal an end of 10-day consolidative phase and resumption of larger uptrend that commenced from 0.8658. Sustained break higher to face immediate targets at 0.9336, Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.9755/0.8658 and bull-channel resistance, break of which to accelerate bulls. The third wave from 0.8889, 03 Mar higher low could travel to 0.9477, its Fibonacci 138.2% expansion, with interim resistance standing at psychological 0.9400 level. Higher base, formed at 0.9250 zone, should ideally contain, while extension below 0.9200 base and 0.9185 trendline support, would bring bears back to play.

Resistance: 0.9336; 0.9388; 0.9400; 0.9477

Support: 0.9290; 0.9253; 0.9229; 0.9200

AUD/USD Hour Chart

AUD/NZD

Pullback off fresh high at 1.0830 found temporary footstep at 1.0741, strong support zone of previous peak of 26 mar / 50% retracement of 1.0641/1.0830, being reinforced by 4-hour 55SMA and broken bear-trendline off 1.0942. Ideally, corrective easing should be contained here, to keep immediate bulls intact for fresh attempt higher. However, weak near-term technicals still see the downside vulnerable. Further easing towards 1.0720, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of larger 1.0541/1.0830 ascend and psychological 1.07 support, wouldn’t be harmful for near-term bulls, while loss of the latter would signal further weakness and sideline near-term bulls.

Resistance: 1.0785; 1.0800; 1.0830; 1.0846

Support: 1.0741; 1.0720; 1.0700; 1.0686

AUD/NZD Hour Chart

XAU/USD

Spot Gold remains supported and resumes recovery rally off 1277 low, after completing 1306/1295 corrective phase. Immediate target lies at 1315, 25/26 Mar lower platform, above which come 1319/21, daily 20SMA / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1392/1277 descend, with break here to confirm near-term base for further recovery. Positive near-term studies are supportive, with 1300/1297, psychological support / 200SMA, offering initial support, ahead of higher base, reinforced by 4-hour 20SMA, expected to keep the downside protected.

Resistance: 1315; 1321; 1334; 1342

Support: 1300; 1297; 1295; 1288

XAU/USD Hour Chart

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