SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 1/18/24 at 4780.94.
Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX (NYSE:GDX) on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
Our gain for 2023 came in at 28.12% and SPX gain for 2023 came in at 23.38.
We made 8 S&P 500 trades with one loss and 7 wins in 2023. The second window up from the bottom is the VIX and next higher window is the SPDR® S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY). When the SPX is rallying and the VIX is rallying a bearish divergence is present. We thought at one point the “Selling Climax” low of January 31 near 482 SPY could be tested (which is about 4% lower than current levels), well that door is back open. The bigger trend is up but the short term trend is starting to show divergences. Staying long the SPX for now.
The second window down from the top is the SPX/TLT ratio and the top window is the RSI for this ratio. This indicator works well for the short term. When the RSI of this ratio falls below 30 (circled in red) the market is usually near a low and when the RSI rises near 75 (current reading is 68) the SPY is near a short term high (noted with blue circles). Though the RSI hasn’t quite reached 75, it is near bearish levels and goes along with the bearish rising VIX.