We expect EUR/USD to rise to 1.13-1.14 if Trump wins the US election. A Clinton win would trigger a fall in EUR/USD to 1.0950.
In our view, a Trump win would lead to a kneejerk 15-20bp fall in 10Y UST, medium-term UST yields would rise under both Trump and Clinton.
We believe global equity markets would fall 3-5% on a Trump win but we would see this as a buying opportunity.
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